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Author Topic: Hurricane Dorian  (Read 12370 times)

Rene T

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Hurricane Dorian
« on: August 28, 2019, 12:00:30 PM »
For all you members living on the FL and Georgia coast, it's just about time to take precautionary measures to be safe. At 11:00 AM today, the National Hurricane Center said that it will increase to a Cat 3 storm but they're not sure where it will hit the coast. One weather guy said it may hit in the area of Orlando. Stay safe and don't take chances.
« Last Edit: August 28, 2019, 12:05:50 PM by Rene T »
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SeilerBird

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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #1 on: August 28, 2019, 12:07:33 PM »
I have been watching Dorian for a week now ever since it left Africa. There are a few dozen different spaghetti models only one hits Orlando. Most end up hitting near Jacksonville.

Rene T

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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #2 on: August 28, 2019, 12:15:29 PM »
I hope you're right Tom but they did say at 11:30 AM that "The center's forecasts currently predict the storm will make landfall near an area that's level with Orlando. But that potential location is subject to change drastically, as the storm develops".
Rene, Lucille & co-pilot Buddy
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From the Granite State of NH
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SeilerBird

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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #3 on: August 28, 2019, 12:40:43 PM »
When has a Florida weatherman ever been right?

Isaac-1

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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #4 on: August 28, 2019, 03:51:54 PM »
Best of luck to all of you in and around Florida, and I sympathize with what you are dealing with, we have it bad enough here in Louisiana, but at least we don't have to deal with a long peninsula with few north/south highways during hurricane evacuations.
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Gary RV_Wizard

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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #5 on: August 28, 2019, 05:12:39 PM »
I've lived in Florida for 42 years and the it's my experienced opinion that until the storm hits the Gulfstream waters along Florida's eastern shore, it's anybody's guess where it might go.  The models don't have enough parameters to cover the possible effect of a variable stream of warm water under a major storm cell. The track could change drastically Saturday evening-Sunday morning, or not at all.  I've even seen them do a 180!
My house insurance is paid up and we are in western North Carolina, so we are prepared!  8)
« Last Edit: August 28, 2019, 05:14:19 PM by Gary RV_Wizard »
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SeilerBird

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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #6 on: August 28, 2019, 05:17:14 PM »
For the last two years I have read predictions in both spring times claiming that there would be an abnormal amount of hurricane activity that year. They were dead wrong last year and so far they are not correct for this year. I think they all want to be able to claim they predicted the hurricanes. As Gary said there just is no way to predict the path of a hurricane. Way too many variables. It is really impossible to predict a week in advance.

John From Detroit

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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #7 on: August 28, 2019, 05:27:55 PM »
I was in Townsend (S.E. Georgia) for Matthew 3 miles from the mandatory evac line with a blown engine..  That was then. Now I'm in eastern MI. about miles from the evac line.

Much nicer... I have no desire to get that close to another himmicane.
Nothing adds excitement like something that is none of your business
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Gary RV_Wizard

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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #8 on: August 28, 2019, 05:41:04 PM »
I think the political and media pressure have had a severely negative effect on the usefulness of hurricane forecasts. Not so much on the weatherman as on local pols and emergency admins. They are afraid of accusations they didn't do enough, so run around like headless chickens and [try to] panic everybody into expensive and highly disruptive actions that are going to be a waste for 90+% of the people.  I get that many people are complacent or downright foolish, but Crying Wolf doesn't help.

I suppose in a perfect world the entire state of Florida would be boarded up and hunkered down already, but it ain't gonna happen.
Gary
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SeilerBird

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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #9 on: August 28, 2019, 05:55:32 PM »
I suppose in a perfect world the entire state of Florida would be boarded up and hunkered down already, but it ain't gonna happen.
Like this:

JackL

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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #10 on: August 28, 2019, 06:04:06 PM »
keeping our fingers crossed !
 Two years ago the sea water surge from hurricane Irma totaled our one year old trailer in Key Largo, which have since replaced.
 We can take the wind, ( I think), since our hurricane tie downs worked for Irma but don't want the surge.

Jack L

Isaac-1

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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #11 on: August 28, 2019, 06:16:39 PM »
Gary, I tend to agree, too much of the official forecast track is pushed by politics, and not by science, those of us in western Louisiana suffer from this every time there is a hurricane in the gulf, until the last minute it seems the forecast track is always pointing them at Pensacola,  New Orleans or Galveston/Houston in order to encourage evacuations of the major population centers where it might hit, instead of the more rural areas in between where the science says it is most likely to hit.
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LarsMac

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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #12 on: August 28, 2019, 06:32:41 PM »
I think the political and media pressure have had a severely negative effect on the usefulness of hurricane forecasts. Not so much on the weatherman as on local pols and emergency admins. They are afraid of accusations they didn't do enough, so run around like headless chickens and [try to] panic everybody into expensive and highly disruptive actions that are going to be a waste for 90+% of the people.  I get that many people are complacent or downright foolish, but Crying Wolf doesn't help.

I suppose in a perfect world the entire state of Florida would be boarded up and hunkered down already, but it ain't gonna happen.

Yeah, look at Charley, back in 2004. They told everybody in Tampa Bay area it was coming for them, and they all went to Orlando. Charley turned and blew through Orlando.
Both the Tampa and Orlando people complained about the Weather service after that one.

 

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Laura & Charles

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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #13 on: August 28, 2019, 06:55:22 PM »
I moved from Florida in 2003. I remember the 2004 season and a sign someone posted in front of their house:
1-Charley
2-Frances
3-Ivan
4-Sale
Was feeling pretty smug about leaving all that. Then Ike hit in 2008 ... once on shore, Ike found his overdrive and zoomed up the Ohio River Valley in like a day and a half... still had 80 mph winds when he made Columbus, Ohio. They didn’t call him a hurricane that far inland, but there were enough businesses without power and roofs sporting blue tarps that it sure seemed like I was back in SFL.
Stay safe everybody!
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LarsMac

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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #14 on: August 28, 2019, 07:06:23 PM »
I have been watching Dorian for a week now ever since it left Africa. There are a few dozen different spaghetti models only one hits Orlando. Most end up hitting near Jacksonville.

I seldom put much faith in the "Spaghetti Model" approach.

Though probabilities, based on the Storm force Wind Speed Probabilities charts tend to give a good idea where things are going.

The highest probabilities at the moment suggest folks in the area from Melbourne to the Palm Beaches should re-think their Labor Day plans.
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John From Detroit

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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #15 on: August 29, 2019, 08:12:42 AM »
About the politics.. Well the Weather folks once burned do tend to be more shall we say Cautious (Liberal with the warnings). but that's not politics that is nature (Once bitten twice shy as they say) I've seen it with tornados  ALL CLEAR. followed by 7 Tornados, followed by "Tornado watch" every time it rained.

The real politics of this mess has me ticked to the point I'm not going to comment further because this is not a political forum..

Oh the final outcome of the ALL CLEAR - 7 Tornados was a good thing.. Sky Warn. A large group of TRAINED weather spotters who track storms and storm conditions so as you get warned with Mr. Tornado is approaching.. 
Nothing adds excitement like something that is none of your business
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Oldgator73

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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #16 on: August 29, 2019, 08:29:46 AM »
We have experienced almost every type of natural disaster. Hurricanes, tornadoes, earthquakes, floods, forest fires, droughts, blizzards, extreme heat (120F), extreme cold (-50F). You just have to be prepared. I don’t think the weather folks are driven by politics. I think they are just being cautious. They would much rather tell you the worst is going to happen and then nothing does than tell you not to worry and your area gets blown off the map.
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Rene T

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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #17 on: August 29, 2019, 08:32:50 AM »
I would rather have the Weather Folks say the worse hurricane of the century is coming and for everyone to evacuate then to say it will be a small rain storm and to stay put and 1000's of people die because of it.
Sorry Gator. You beat me to the punch.
Rene, Lucille & co-pilot Buddy
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Isaac-1

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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #18 on: August 29, 2019, 11:32:47 AM »
The problem with hurricanes is you never know what to expect, it all depends on how big they are, not just max wind speed, but also the size of the footprint, and how close you are to its path.  Over the years any number of hurricanes have passed by where I live about 80 miles inland, some have left downed trees, lots of rain water, etc., but only one that I recall in the last 40+ years has been significant, that was Rita which hit our side of the state 3 weeks after Katrina hit New Orleans.  The national news did not cover Rita much, they were still busy covering the rioting and conditions in New Orleans, Rita was bad though, at one point before landfall it was the 2nd strongest hurricane ever recorded in the gulf of mexico.   We were lucky where I live, only about 20-30% of the houses had significant roof damage, 40 miles south of us that number went up to 60%, and for the 25 miles closest to the coast almost nothing was left standing, only a handful of buildings in the coastal town of Cameron survived including the stone court house, grocery stores were stripped to the structural iron, houses were simply gone.  At my house we were without power for 5 days, we were one of the lucky ones, my father who lived about 10 miles south on a major highway was without power for over 3 weeks, and I knew people in more rural areas within 10 or so miles of town that were without power for over 6 weeks.   A year later power still had not been restored to much of the coastal area, though it did not matter as no structures were left standing, peak high water mark was at 14 feet above sea level, which is significant in a parish (county) where the highest point 3 feet.
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HappyWanderer

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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #19 on: August 29, 2019, 03:04:48 PM »
Weather guessers are driven by ratings, not politics.
WARNING: This post may contain a chemical known to the State of California to cause cancer, or birth defects or other reproductive harm.

SeilerBird

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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #20 on: August 29, 2019, 03:17:17 PM »
Weather guessers are driven by ratings, not politics.
Amen. 8)

Arch Hoagland

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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #21 on: August 29, 2019, 11:01:51 PM »
Gary RV_Wizard said:
"I think the political and media pressure have had a severely negative effect on the usefulness of hurricane forecasts."

I agree 1,000% 
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Irover

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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #22 on: August 30, 2019, 07:44:55 AM »
  I don't mess with hurricanes! I just to heck outta Dodge!
Don't ever give up!! keep pushing toward the goal!!!
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SpencerPJ

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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #23 on: August 30, 2019, 09:06:11 AM »
It's like the little boy that cried wolf.
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Irover

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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #24 on: August 31, 2019, 07:27:46 AM »
It's like the little boy that cried wolf.

 8) 8) Best to be safe than sorry! I remember what happened to Andrews Air Force Base!
Don't ever give up!! keep pushing toward the goal!!!
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LarsMac

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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #25 on: August 31, 2019, 09:45:28 AM »
Looks now like it will scrub the Eastern coastline for a few days.
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John From Detroit

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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #26 on: August 31, 2019, 10:08:19 AM »
There is a graphic on face book that actually is true. The weather forcaster on TV is warning everyone to get outta town and head to safe ground (A shelter outside the storm area).. But he adds. "For those of you who deny science and believe it is iall fake.. Stay put and enjoy the storm" or words to that effect.

Sadly there are those who WILL do just that.. and many of them will simply Disappear.

The good news. Emergency communications are already in place. have been for a long, long time.  And though I'll be sitting out this hurricane here in MI.... I'm part of that network along with several thousands of others across this great nation.
Nothing adds excitement like something that is none of your business
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Oldgator73

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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #27 on: August 31, 2019, 11:09:38 AM »
Folks have been told to evacuate during forest fires and there are those that refuse. Folks are told to evacuate during flooding and some refuse. Folks are told they need to evacuate because a hurricane is headed that way and some refuse. It’s okay to refuse to leave your home but know that you will either be laughing at those that did or you will be dead. You choose.
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Gary RV_Wizard

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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #28 on: August 31, 2019, 12:00:42 PM »
"Evacuate" is easy advice to give but a difficult and expensive decision to undertake.  Uncertainty is a big part of what makes it so difficult.  Uncertain if the severe part of the storm will actually hit your area and uncertain where to go to get out of the way.  Plus it's a major financial and logistic decision. Nobody would sweat the money and hassle if the danger was a sure thing, but a large percentage of those in the potential path will in fact be in little or no danger at all.  Last, evacuating ahead of time doesn't solve one significant piece of the problem: protecting your home and business.
We've lived in Florida 42 years and each year there are 3-5 warnings that our lives are in danger.  In that time, about 6 storms actually hit close to our home and only 2 of those caused damage. None life-threatening, I might add. That doesn't mean we take the storms lightly, but we don't run away screaming either.  Another bit of irony: There have been 3 other occasions when a hurricane came close enough to threaten us, one of them enough so that we did actually evacuate. Those 3 were in upstate NY, central PA, and western NC. Not Florida.  ???
Gary
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Lou Schneider

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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #29 on: August 31, 2019, 12:13:12 PM »
Folks have been told to evacuate during forest fires and there are those that refuse. Folks are told to evacuate during flooding and some refuse. Folks are told they need to evacuate because a hurricane is headed that way and some refuse. It’s okay to refuse to leave your home but know that you will either be laughing at those that did or you will be dead. You choose.

One old man refused to believe Mt. St. Helens was a threat and refused to leave his Spirit Lake home when the evacuation orders were issued.  He made national headlines for a few days, laughing at those who fled.

Then not only his house but the entire lake vanished in a matter of seconds when the volcano erupted.
« Last Edit: August 31, 2019, 12:21:26 PM by Lou Schneider »

SeilerBird

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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #30 on: August 31, 2019, 04:26:20 PM »
It looks like Dorian will made the right hand turn all of Florida was hoping for. It has been slowing down as it trys to turn north. This is the most beautiful looking eye I have ever seen, almost perfectly formed. I am sure the long time residents here have seen better.
« Last Edit: September 01, 2019, 01:39:51 PM by SeilerBird »

LarsMac

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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #31 on: August 31, 2019, 05:03:03 PM »
That may not bode well for the folks in the Carolinas.
Without the Bahamas to slow things up a bit, there is nothing but open water until it hits the Carolina Shores.
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John From Detroit

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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #32 on: August 31, 2019, 05:07:40 PM »
I remember several hurricanes ago one sheriff ask those remaining to write their SS or Driver's license number on their arm in magic marker... Make 'em easier to ID when the body is recovered.
Nothing adds excitement like something that is none of your business
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Hfx_Cdn

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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #33 on: August 31, 2019, 05:10:28 PM »
    Tom, we have clear skies, and a prediction of being able to see the Northern Lights toning here in Nova Scotia.  I don't doubt that your sunset will be gorgeous, the rara display of the Aurora this far south is usually impressive, and I have not see them since I was a kid.

Ed
Ed & Donna
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Arch Hoagland

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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #34 on: August 31, 2019, 05:17:33 PM »
I remember several hurricanes ago one sheriff ask those remaining to write their SS or Driver's license number on their arm in magic marker... Make 'em easier to ID when the body is recovered.

Maybe people who live in Florida should have to wear dog tags like we did in the service.
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catblaster

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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #35 on: August 31, 2019, 06:35:43 PM »
I remember several hurricanes ago one sheriff ask those remaining to write their SS or Driver's license number on their arm in magic marker... Make 'em easier to ID when the body is recovered.

   I do that when I go to walmart !!
Will and Jane
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ChasA

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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #36 on: September 01, 2019, 12:58:33 PM »
Dorian has made the right hand turn all of Florida was hoping for. It has also slowed down as it made the turn north. This is the most beautiful looking eye I have ever seen, almost perfectly formed. I am sure the long time residents here have seen better.
I am sitting here watching reports that the storm is still heading west, toward Florida with 185 mph winds. It is expected to stall over Grand Bahama Island later today and then turn northward. I remember Andrew was supposed to turn northward too. But it didn't. My brother will attest to that.
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SeilerBird

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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #37 on: September 01, 2019, 01:29:59 PM »
I am sitting here watching reports that the storm is still heading west, toward Florida with 185 mph winds. It is expected to stall over Grand Bahama Island later today and then turn northward. I remember Andrew was supposed to turn northward too. But it didn't. My brother will attest to that.
You are correct of course Chas. I was thinking that the track shows it finally turning north. All last week it was shown coming straight into Florida.

SeilerBird

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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #38 on: September 01, 2019, 01:40:55 PM »
    Tom, we have clear skies, and a prediction of being able to see the Northern Lights toning here in Nova Scotia.  I don't doubt that your sunset will be gorgeous, the rara display of the Aurora this far south is usually impressive, and I have not see them since I was a kid.

Ed
I am jealous, I have never seen the Northern Lights. (Well actually I have but that is another story)

ChasA

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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #39 on: September 01, 2019, 03:50:00 PM »
I just saw a picture on TV of hundreds of power company trucks gathering in Wildwood, Florida, ready to deploy. Very impressive.
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Gary RV_Wizard

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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #40 on: September 01, 2019, 04:51:58 PM »
There's a whole bunch in Ocala too, and other cities scattered throughout the state. Local restaurants often take turns feeding the crews for free, especially in the aftermath when the crews are working 16 hour days.

The electric utility companies have a mutual aid pact to send help wherever needed and it works really well. Maybe they could give FEMA a few tips on organization!
Gary
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Summers: Black Mountain, NC
Home: Ocala National Forest, FL

John From Detroit

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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #41 on: September 01, 2019, 05:57:41 PM »
Where Dorian will land I'm starting to think will be kind of like when the world will end.

In case you do not know there have been many who have predicted the end of the world. Many have already been proven wrong.  there is but one who's predictions I believe.

"But of that day and hour no one knoweth, not the angels of heaven, but the Father alone." - Matthew 24:36 - Download the App! https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.summtech.catholic.bible

I might add that not only applies to WHERE Dorian will make landfall but when and if.

Though (As a note of humor) I have read a post in another forum by someone who say a couple of prominent political figures are controlling the path.  I won't mention who Ever. but .. I do think that poster needs some more tin foil for his hat.
Nothing adds excitement like something that is none of your business
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ChasA

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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #42 on: September 01, 2019, 06:42:42 PM »
Or Mu metal.
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Larry N.

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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #43 on: September 01, 2019, 06:43:12 PM »
I just saw a picture on TV of hundreds of power company trucks gathering in Wildwood, Florida, ready to deploy. Very impressive.
The Denver news last night talked about a group who are traveling from Colorado to FL with a lot of small boats to help with problems during the flooding.
Larry and Mary Ann N.
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Hfx_Cdn

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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #44 on: September 02, 2019, 09:16:03 AM »
     We went looking, but there was way too much light pollution, and I'm told they were only visible this far south for a very short time.  However, here is a link to some pics taken in BC with some beautiful views: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-northern-lights-long-weekend-1.5238032
     We used to see them well when we lived in Northern Ontario, but that was 50 years ago, we don't see them here very often.

Ed
Ed & Donna
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shorts

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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #45 on: September 02, 2019, 12:47:46 PM »
There's a whole bunch in Ocala too, and other cities scattered throughout the state. Local restaurants often take turns feeding the crews for free, especially in the aftermath when the crews are working 16 hour days.

The electric utility companies have a mutual aid pact to send help wherever needed and it works really well. Maybe they could give FEMA a few tips on organization!

Our son works for Duke Energy in Indiana and said they sent a large crew and trucks to Florida last Thursday. They do this all the time when other states need help.

Vicki
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SeilerBird

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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #46 on: September 02, 2019, 12:56:50 PM »
I am currently out of the cone but that could change in a heartbeat. I am watching the tracks every hour.

ChasA

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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #47 on: September 02, 2019, 02:47:24 PM »
Tom, I'm sure you know this. But many people don't.  That cone only shows where the NHC expects the center of the storm to go. So, you could experience tropical storm or hurricane conditions well outside of the cone with the center still in the cone. Also, the forecasters only get the track right 2 out of 3 times. You are wise to keep an eye on it.
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SeilerBird

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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #48 on: September 02, 2019, 03:01:51 PM »
I know all that Chas, I am just happy that I am no longer in the cone. Of course it can still get nasty here.

Peggyy

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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #49 on: September 03, 2019, 08:11:06 AM »
Now that we are out of the cone, I breathed a sigh of relief this morning.  However, reading the posts on here has now made me wonder if I breathed too soon!  This is the slowest moving hurricane!  I am so sad for the bahamas.  Such devastation.
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Gary RV_Wizard

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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #50 on: September 03, 2019, 08:45:30 AM »
Many people misunderstand the meaning of the forecast cone.  The "cone" does not predict where strong winds and heavy rains will be - it's just the collective set of possible tracks for the eye of the storm.  Storm winds and rain extends 45-90 miles from the eye in all directions and may occur a day before or after the eye passes a location.  If the eye of the storm were to pass at the edge of the cone, severe damage could easily occur 45-90 miles outside the cone.   You should also be aware that historically the cone has been accurate only 67% of the time. 1 out of 3 hurricanes actually track outside of the predicted path at some point.

The National Hurricane Center also produces forecast maps showing where strong winds and heavy rains can be expected, based on the eye being anywhere within the prediction cone. That's a much more useful projection, yet the media rarely show it or explain it. They like simple graphics, not complex wave patterns.

Take a look at the wind and rain prediction maps at the Hurricane Center:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/220614.shtml?tswind120#contents

Gary
--------------
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SeilerBird

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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #51 on: September 03, 2019, 09:06:44 AM »
I used to visit the NOAA site for hurricanes but now I prefer the SunSentinal site. You can zoom in and really see what is happening. Then if you scroll down you can see all the projected tracks.

https://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/weather/hurricane/forecast/

BruceinFL

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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #52 on: September 03, 2019, 11:09:18 AM »
If Dorian doesn't make up his mind, half of FL will die of alcohol poisoning!  ;D ;D ;D ;D
Bruce A.
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SLOweather

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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #53 on: September 03, 2019, 07:41:44 PM »
SiriusXM is simulcasting The Weather Channel on 105, regardless of whether your receiver is subscribed or not. It was supposed to end today, but now extended to at least Friday.
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Gary RV_Wizard

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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #54 on: September 04, 2019, 11:27:58 AM »
Yeah, the Sun Sentinel site is excellent for projected paths, easier to use than the NOAA site.   However, it doesn't do much for wind and rain potential or timing.  It's rather well hidden on the site and hard to comprehend when you do find it.  It's another example of what I alluded to above - a media focus on the projected track rather than the area of effect.
Gary
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magothy1

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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #55 on: September 04, 2019, 08:04:08 PM »
For you weather nerds, try windy.com, it's fun to use the forecast bar at the bottom.

In Beaufort, SC so far it's not too bad. Haven't heard any big trees fall, yet, knock on wood. It will be a noisy night with the wind and rain. High tide at 0200 will be hard on some folks in low areas. Downtown Charleston will be a salt water pond, again.

SeilerBird

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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #56 on: September 05, 2019, 02:17:45 AM »
For you weather nerds, try windy.com, it's fun to use the forecast bar at the bottom.

In Beaufort, SC so far it's not too bad. Haven't heard any big trees fall, yet, knock on wood. It will be a noisy night with the wind and rain. High tide at 0200 will be hard on some folks in low areas. Downtown Charleston will be a salt water pond, again.
I am a weather nerd and that is a fantastic link, thank you. It is on my bookmark bar.

SeilerBird

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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #57 on: September 05, 2019, 03:12:08 AM »
Alabama is safe.

magothy1

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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #58 on: September 05, 2019, 04:26:39 AM »
We're lucky so far, got power, hot coffee, and my better 9/16's stayed up until the bread machine was finished, so there's fresh bread.  It's getting noisy out there now.

LarsMac

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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #59 on: September 05, 2019, 09:35:12 AM »
This has been an interesting site for watching the weather, as well.
Windy.com seems to tap into some of the same info.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=270.42,6.08,385

(Click on "Earth" to see the options)
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Arch Hoagland

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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #60 on: September 05, 2019, 10:28:14 AM »
We're lucky so far, got power, hot coffee, and my better 9/16's stayed up until the bread machine was finished, so there's fresh bread.  It's getting noisy out there now.

What are 9/16's ?

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Lou Schneider

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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #61 on: September 05, 2019, 10:58:23 AM »
Ruling partner or majority shareholder.  AKA 51%.
« Last Edit: September 05, 2019, 11:00:19 AM by Lou Schneider »

SeilerBird

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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #62 on: September 05, 2019, 11:46:08 AM »
Ruling partner or majority shareholder.  AKA 51%.
And here I thought it was a socket wrench. :o

BruceinFL

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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #63 on: September 05, 2019, 11:49:43 AM »
Neat site (windy.com). Also, a really good phone/iPad app is Ventusky. It is  free.
Bruce A.
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msw3113

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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #64 on: September 05, 2019, 12:13:58 PM »
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Larry N.

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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #65 on: September 05, 2019, 01:48:46 PM »
Larry and Mary Ann N.
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Old_Crow

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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #66 on: September 06, 2019, 09:41:12 PM »
That makes him a 7/16.

I think he's bragging.  ;)
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Hfx_Cdn

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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #67 on: September 07, 2019, 08:31:14 AM »
     OK folks, we are about an hour from a Cat 2 Dorion landfall here in Nova Scotia.  Wish you folks would have turned it out to sea as promised.  Dorian, the gift that keeps on giving.   :(

Ed
Ed & Donna
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Oldgator73

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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #68 on: September 07, 2019, 08:47:42 AM »
Thoughts & Prayers for Alabama.
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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #69 on: September 07, 2019, 09:09:37 AM »
     OK folks, we are about an hour from a Cat 2 Dorion landfall here in Nova Scotia.  Wish you folks would have turned it out to sea as promised.  Dorian, the gift that keeps on giving.   :(

Ed

Ed, when was the last time a hurricane made it that far north?

You and Donna stay safe.
« Last Edit: September 07, 2019, 09:15:04 AM by Rene T »
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Alfa38User

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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #70 on: September 07, 2019, 09:14:03 AM »
     OK folks, we are about an hour from a Cat 2 Dorion landfall here in Nova Scotia.  Wish you folks would have turned it out to sea as promised.  Dorian, the gift that keeps on giving.   :(

Ed
Hang on to your hat Ed, and good luck as you batten down for this one.
Stu
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Old_Crow

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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #71 on: September 07, 2019, 09:51:55 AM »
     OK folks, we are about an hour from a Cat 2 Dorion landfall here in Nova Scotia.  Wish you folks would have turned it out to sea as promised.  Dorian, the gift that keeps on giving.   :(

Ed

Just get you a Sharpie and change the map.   ::)
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SeilerBird

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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #72 on: September 07, 2019, 09:58:22 AM »
Ed, when was the last time a hurricane made it that far north?

You and Donna stay safe.
Many times hurricanes have gone that far north:

August 26, 1873: The Nova Scotia Hurricane of 1873 drifted south of Nova Scotia as a Category 3 hurricane. It weakened to a Category 1 before slowly making landfall in Newfoundland. It was a devastating hurricane that killed over 600. Damage in Nova Scotia was severe. It destroyed over 1,200 boats and over 900 homes and businesses. This is one of Nova Scotia's worst cyclones.

Here is a bunch more:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Canada_hurricanes

Hfx_Cdn

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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #73 on: September 07, 2019, 11:32:43 AM »
    Hurricane Juan hit in almost the exact same location as Dorian is now projected to hit, and that was Sept 29, 2003.  It too was a Cat 2, and it did a lot of damage as it crossed the Maritimes.  Dorian is a lot larger, so all bets are off.  Usually, hurricanes lose most of their fury as they hit the cooler north Atlantic, but with global warming, it actually picked up intensity after heading out of North carolina.
    Old Crow, I tried the sharpie, but it didn't work any better for me than for others in changing the direction. 

Ed
Ed & Donna
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Hfx_Cdn

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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #74 on: September 07, 2019, 06:55:52 PM »
    I didn't have to worry about Dorian changing direction, it came, went almost overhead, heavy winds and lots of rain.  But it was moving at about 30 MPH so it didn't stick around long.  They referred to it as a Post Tropical storm with category 2 wind speeds.  Whatever that means, I don't know other than they said it had developed "typical weather patterns" ????
    Once the eye went over, the wind just stopped.  Now I've got a bunch of leaves to rake, but no damage.  Others were not so lucky, the house across the street had a large tree uprooted and blown over,  and there are a lot of areas without power, plus the storm surge did some damage along the coast line.
Ed & Donna
Winter-Pinellas Park FL, Summer- Maritime Canada
2000 Coachmen Catalina 34' DP (owned 2004 to 2015)
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darsben

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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #75 on: September 07, 2019, 07:33:40 PM »
Hfx_Cdn
We will be looking forward to some stories on Wednesday
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Alpena Jeff

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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #76 on: September 07, 2019, 09:18:46 PM »
Just get you a Sharpie and change the map.   ::)
Very clever.
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jackiemac

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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #77 on: September 08, 2019, 12:57:17 AM »
Scary stuff. I can't imagine what it must be like. Especially in an RV...
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SeilerBird

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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #78 on: September 08, 2019, 05:10:43 AM »
Looks like Dorian is headed for the North Pole. :o

blw2

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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #79 on: September 08, 2019, 07:53:19 AM »
another weather nerd here....I also saved that windy.com link...looks interesting.

For tropical wx, I used to primarily visit
http://www.boatus.com/hurricanes/Default.asp?WT.mc_id=100028
   (seems to be down at the moment)
but more recently I've liked
https://spaghettimodels.com/
  it's a good place to link to several different things...I like that from one source you can bounce to the official nws, but also look at a couple sources for the forecast models+ go to info about the recon aircraft stuff
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Alfa38User

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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #80 on: September 08, 2019, 03:15:10 PM »
Hi Ed

Glad you didn't personally  suffer too much damage, at least you did not have to run.... It is still not something I would want to experience. Perhaps by the time I get to Florida, the "season" will be over with for this year.... I hope you get the power back before to long, the good side is that it is not winter quite yet. We lived through the big Ice Storm here in Jan 1998 and had no power for more than 7 days at well below freezing temps. (We did have a wood burning fireplace in the playroom and lived in the there for the duration and heated food on our boats alcohol stove).
« Last Edit: September 08, 2019, 03:19:16 PM by Alfa38User »
Stu
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Isaac-1

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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #81 on: September 08, 2019, 03:57:34 PM »
Stu, keep in mind something like 30% of hurricanes occur outside of hurricane season
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Alfa38User

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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #82 on: September 08, 2019, 04:13:11 PM »
Stu, keep in mind something like 30% of hurricanes occur outside of hurricane season
Very true, but please don't spoil my dream!!!  :)
Stu
Montréal, Canada 🍁
Snowbird, Naples Florida
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"Of course I talk to myself, sometimes I need expert advise!!!"

Hfx_Cdn

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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #83 on: September 09, 2019, 05:51:19 AM »
     Stu, we never lost power or phone/cable/internet, but we are in the minority.  Had friends, who live on the Halifax side over for a hot supper last night as they have been without power since around 4 PM Saturday.  We got up yesterday to see a couple of younger gentlemen with their chain saws cutting up the downed elm tree.  They are just couple of neighbouhood guys out to do a good deed, and wouldn't even take money to pay for the gas.
     As for the sharpie, I see that a much weaker, but still dangerous Dorian is heading up to Greenland.  Is it somehow being aimed?   ;)

Ed
Ed & Donna
Winter-Pinellas Park FL, Summer- Maritime Canada
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SeilerBird

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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #84 on: September 09, 2019, 05:55:59 AM »
Yes it is being aimed. It missed West Palm Beach and is heading for Greenland. Guess who is in control of it?

Oldgator73

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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #85 on: September 09, 2019, 06:37:56 AM »
Yes it is being aimed. It missed West Palm Beach and is heading for Greenland. Guess who is in control of it?

Have you actually seen the NWS Sharpie corrected map depicting this model?
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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #86 on: September 09, 2019, 08:11:05 AM »
Yes it is being aimed. It missed West Palm Beach and is heading for Greenland. Guess who is in control of it?

I read that bit about a couple of politically notables controlling it, of course it's pure .... Dung (that's the polite word I think)   GOD is in control or mother nature. take your pick. No person.  But then I know you are joking.
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Oldgator73

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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #87 on: September 09, 2019, 08:21:06 AM »
I read that bit about a couple of politically notables controlling it, of course it's pure .... Dung (that's the polite word I think)   GOD is in control or mother nature. take your pick. No person.  But then I know you are joking.

Actually no fictional character controls the path of a hurricane:

http://www.hurricanescience.org/science/science/hurricanemovement/
Retired Air Force
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Do you know the difference between Education and Training: Would you rather your daughter take sex Education or sex Training?

Hfx_Cdn

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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #88 on: September 11, 2019, 11:03:24 AM »
    Dorian is really the Energizer Bunny!  It is now hitting the UK with 70+ MPH winds.

Ed

https://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/1176321/uk-weather-forecast-wind-radar-met-office-weather-hurricane-dorian-path-uk
Ed & Donna
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