Hurricane Dorian

[SeilerBird]

It looks like Dorian will made the right hand turn all of Florida was hoping for. It has been slowing down as it trys to turn north. This is the most beautiful looking eye I have ever seen, almost perfectly formed. I am sure the long time residents here have seen better.

[LarsMac]

That may not bode well for the folks in the Carolinas.
Without the Bahamas to slow things up a bit, there is nothing but open water until it hits the Carolina Shores.

[John From Detroit]

I remember several hurricanes ago one sheriff ask those remaining to write their SS or Driver's license number on their arm in magic marker... Make 'em easier to ID when the body is recovered.

[Hfx_Cdn]

    Tom, we have clear skies, and a prediction of being able to see the Northern Lights toning here in Nova Scotia.  I don't doubt that your sunset will be gorgeous, the rara display of the Aurora this far south is usually impressive, and I have not see them since I was a kid.

Ed

[Arch Hoagland]

I remember several hurricanes ago one sheriff ask those remaining to write their SS or Driver's license number on their arm in magic marker... Make 'em easier to ID when the body is recovered.

Maybe people who live in Florida should have to wear dog tags like we did in the service.

[catblaster]

I remember several hurricanes ago one sheriff ask those remaining to write their SS or Driver's license number on their arm in magic marker... Make 'em easier to ID when the body is recovered.

   I do that when I go to walmart !!

[ChasA]

Dorian has made the right hand turn all of Florida was hoping for. It has also slowed down as it made the turn north. This is the most beautiful looking eye I have ever seen, almost perfectly formed. I am sure the long time residents here have seen better.

I am sitting here watching reports that the storm is still heading west, toward Florida with 185 mph winds. It is expected to stall over Grand Bahama Island later today and then turn northward. I remember Andrew was supposed to turn northward too. But it didn't. My brother will attest to that.

[SeilerBird]

I am sitting here watching reports that the storm is still heading west, toward Florida with 185 mph winds. It is expected to stall over Grand Bahama Island later today and then turn northward. I remember Andrew was supposed to turn northward too. But it didn't. My brother will attest to that.

You are correct of course Chas. I was thinking that the track shows it finally turning north. All last week it was shown coming straight into Florida.

[SeilerBird]

    Tom, we have clear skies, and a prediction of being able to see the Northern Lights toning here in Nova Scotia.  I don't doubt that your sunset will be gorgeous, the rara display of the Aurora this far south is usually impressive, and I have not see them since I was a kid.

Ed

I am jealous, I have never seen the Northern Lights. (Well actually I have but that is another story)

[ChasA]

I just saw a picture on TV of hundreds of power company trucks gathering in Wildwood, Florida, ready to deploy. Very impressive.

[Gary RV_Wizard]

There's a whole bunch in Ocala too, and other cities scattered throughout the state. Local restaurants often take turns feeding the crews for free, especially in the aftermath when the crews are working 16 hour days.

The electric utility companies have a mutual aid pact to send help wherever needed and it works really well. Maybe they could give FEMA a few tips on organization!

[John From Detroit]

Where Dorian will land I'm starting to think will be kind of like when the world will end.

In case you do not know there have been many who have predicted the end of the world. Many have already been proven wrong.  there is but one who's predictions I believe.

"But of that day and hour no one knoweth, not the angels of heaven, but the Father alone." - Matthew 24:36 - Download the App! https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.summtech.catholic.bible

I might add that not only applies to WHERE Dorian will make landfall but when and if.

Though (As a note of humor) I have read a post in another forum by someone who say a couple of prominent political figures are controlling the path.  I won't mention who Ever. but .. I do think that poster needs some more tin foil for his hat.

[ChasA]

Or Mu metal.

[Larry N.]

I just saw a picture on TV of hundreds of power company trucks gathering in Wildwood, Florida, ready to deploy. Very impressive.

The Denver news last night talked about a group who are traveling from Colorado to FL with a lot of small boats to help with problems during the flooding.

[Hfx_Cdn]

     We went looking, but there was way too much light pollution, and I'm told they were only visible this far south for a very short time.  However, here is a link to some pics taken in BC with some beautiful views: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-northern-lights-long-weekend-1.5238032
     We used to see them well when we lived in Northern Ontario, but that was 50 years ago, we don't see them here very often.

Ed

[shorts]

There's a whole bunch in Ocala too, and other cities scattered throughout the state. Local restaurants often take turns feeding the crews for free, especially in the aftermath when the crews are working 16 hour days.

The electric utility companies have a mutual aid pact to send help wherever needed and it works really well. Maybe they could give FEMA a few tips on organization!

Our son works for Duke Energy in Indiana and said they sent a large crew and trucks to Florida last Thursday. They do this all the time when other states need help.

Vicki

[SeilerBird]

I am currently out of the cone but that could change in a heartbeat. I am watching the tracks every hour.

[ChasA]

Tom, I'm sure you know this. But many people don't.  That cone only shows where the NHC expects the center of the storm to go. So, you could experience tropical storm or hurricane conditions well outside of the cone with the center still in the cone. Also, the forecasters only get the track right 2 out of 3 times. You are wise to keep an eye on it.

[SeilerBird]

I know all that Chas, I am just happy that I am no longer in the cone. Of course it can still get nasty here.

[Peggyy]

Now that we are out of the cone, I breathed a sigh of relief this morning.  However, reading the posts on here has now made me wonder if I breathed too soon!  This is the slowest moving hurricane!  I am so sad for the bahamas.  Such devastation.

[Gary RV_Wizard]

Many people misunderstand the meaning of the forecast cone.  The "cone" does not predict where strong winds and heavy rains will be - it's just the collective set of possible tracks for the eye of the storm.  Storm winds and rain extends 45-90 miles from the eye in all directions and may occur a day before or after the eye passes a location.  If the eye of the storm were to pass at the edge of the cone, severe damage could easily occur 45-90 miles outside the cone.   You should also be aware that historically the cone has been accurate only 67% of the time. 1 out of 3 hurricanes actually track outside of the predicted path at some point.

The National Hurricane Center also produces forecast maps showing where strong winds and heavy rains can be expected, based on the eye being anywhere within the prediction cone. That's a much more useful projection, yet the media rarely show it or explain it. They like simple graphics, not complex wave patterns.

Take a look at the wind and rain prediction maps at the Hurricane Center:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/220614.shtml?tswind120#contents

[SeilerBird]

I used to visit the NOAA site for hurricanes but now I prefer the SunSentinal site. You can zoom in and really see what is happening. Then if you scroll down you can see all the projected tracks.

https://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/weather/hurricane/forecast/

[BruceinFL]

If Dorian doesn't make up his mind, half of FL will die of alcohol poisoning! 

[SLOweather]

SiriusXM is simulcasting The Weather Channel on 105, regardless of whether your receiver is subscribed or not. It was supposed to end today, but now extended to at least Friday.

[Gary RV_Wizard]

Yeah, the Sun Sentinel site is excellent for projected paths, easier to use than the NOAA site.   However, it doesn't do much for wind and rain potential or timing.  It's rather well hidden on the site and hard to comprehend when you do find it.  It's another example of what I alluded to above - a media focus on the projected track rather than the area of effect.

[magothy1]

For you weather nerds, try windy.com, it's fun to use the forecast bar at the bottom.

In Beaufort, SC so far it's not too bad. Haven't heard any big trees fall, yet, knock on wood. It will be a noisy night with the wind and rain. High tide at 0200 will be hard on some folks in low areas. Downtown Charleston will be a salt water pond, again.

[SeilerBird]

For you weather nerds, try windy.com, it's fun to use the forecast bar at the bottom.

In Beaufort, SC so far it's not too bad. Haven't heard any big trees fall, yet, knock on wood. It will be a noisy night with the wind and rain. High tide at 0200 will be hard on some folks in low areas. Downtown Charleston will be a salt water pond, again.

I am a weather nerd and that is a fantastic link, thank you. It is on my bookmark bar.

[SeilerBird]

Alabama is safe.

[magothy1]

We're lucky so far, got power, hot coffee, and my better 9/16's stayed up until the bread machine was finished, so there's fresh bread.  It's getting noisy out there now.

[LarsMac]

This has been an interesting site for watching the weather, as well.
Windy.com seems to tap into some of the same info.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=270.42,6.08,385

(Click on "Earth" to see the options)