July number continue to be low

[KandT]

https://www.rvia.org/news-insights/rv-shipments-july-2019

Class A's are down 32% YOY for July. 

[SargeW]

Wow, that's still 460,000 NEW Rv's so far this year.  It may be down from last year, but to me those numbers are still amazing.  No wonder RV spots are getting harder to come by.....

[garyb1st]

If you look at the historic data, https://www.rvia.org/historical-rv-data you'll see increases every year from 2009 until 2018 when sales dropped by 4.1%.  In fact, from 2009 thru 2017, sales almost tripled.  So after the great recession, things improved significantly.  Then following one of the greatest tax reductions in the history of the US, sales started coming down.  Go figure. 

[SeilerBird]

If you look at the historic data, https://www.rvia.org/historical-rv-data you'll see increases every year from 2009 until 2018 when sales dropped by 4.1%.  In fact, from 2009 thru 2017, sales almost tripled.  So after the great recession, things improved significantly.  Then following one of the greatest tax reductions in the history of the US, sales started coming down.  Go figure.

That tax reduction was a scam to help the rich folks, not us commoners.

[docj]

That tax reduction was a scam to help the rich folks, not us commoners.

The so-called tax cut eliminated the benefit of itemizing deductions for most middle class families which eliminated the "2nd home mortgage interest deduction" which many folks claimed on the loans for their RVs.  Not surprisingly, this most likely had a negative impact on sales, especially of higher-priced RVs.

If you haven't already done so, I recommend using the IRS online tax estimator to calculate the taxes you will owe next April.  If you think you're getting a tax reduction you may be sorely disappointed.  https://apps.irs.gov/app/tax-withholding-estimator

[SeilerBird]

The so-called tax cut eliminated the benefit of itemizing deductions for most middle class families which eliminated the "2nd home mortgage interest deduction" which many folks claimed on the loans for their RVs.  Not surprisingly, this most likely had a negative impact on sales, especially of higher-priced RVs.

If you haven't already done so, I recommend using the IRS online tax estimator to calculate the taxes you will owe next April.  If you think you're getting a tax reduction you may be sorely disappointed.  https://apps.irs.gov/app/tax-withholding-estimator

But at least the inheritance tax was repealed so the kids of rich parents won't have to pay billions in inheritance taxes.

[garyb1st]

But at least the inheritance tax was repealed so the kids of rich parents won't have to pay billions in inheritance taxes.

But the big question, will those new billionaires buy motorhomes?   

[SargeW]

That tax reduction was a scam to help the rich folks, not us commoners.

I don't necessarily agree. I am totally a "commoner" but never got anywhere close to  the $24,000 standard deduction, even when I did have a house and RV payment. I guess I could never afford a million dollar house to get my deductions up that far.  And with the elimination of the  2nd mortgage deduction, that's going to hurt a lot more  of the upper income folks than the medium to lower bracket people. 

I did pay last year, $63 to the Feds, without any of the old deductions. But my pension payments went up over twice that much per month with the changes in the tax rates. Now days my taxes will just about be a "short form". 

It's funny, so many folks complained about not getting as big a tax refund as they did in previous years, but many  forgot about the extra money each payday. I guess it's the same old story, you just can't make everyone happy at the same time.   

[docj]

I don't necessarily agree. I am totally a "commoner" but never got anywhere close to  the $24,000 standard deduction, even when I did have a house and RV payment. I guess I could never afford a million dollar house to get my deductions up that far.  And with the elimination of the  2nd mortgage deduction, that's going to hurt a lot more  of the upper income folks than the medium to lower bracket people. 

Don't lose sight of the fact that with the $24k standard deduction you no longer get ANY personal exemptions.  That means that my wife and mean (both over 65) will lose over $8k in exemptions, so the $24k standard deduction is really only a $16k deduction in terms of its actual impact.   Even as retirees we usually had more than $16k in itemized deductions which we can no longer claim.

[SeilerBird]

I don't necessarily agree. I am totally a "commoner" but never got anywhere close to  the $24,000 standard deduction, even when I did have a house and RV payment. I guess I could never afford a million dollar house to get my deductions up that far.  And with the elimination of the  2nd mortgage deduction, that's going to hurt a lot more  of the upper income folks than the medium to lower bracket people. 

I did pay last year, $63 to the Feds, without any of the old deductions. But my pension payments went up over twice that much per month with the changes in the tax rates. Now days my taxes will just about be a "short form". 

It's funny, so many folks complained about not getting as big a tax refund as they did in previous years, but many  forgot about the extra money each payday. I guess it's the same old story, you just can't make everyone happy at the same time.   

Sarge I wish to say thank you for disagreeing with me in a humane way. Many times there are morons here who disagree with me and have to try and make me look stupid in doing so. I respect your opinion and I am glad you respected mine. An opinion is simply an opinion and some people here don't get that.

[PJ Stough]

With so many changes in the tax code, it is not easy to determine as a group who is better off and who is not.  The biggest complaint that you hear the most was that the tax changes were so top heavy.

[SargeW]

Not completely Joel, the below table from the IRS web site shows an additional $1300 bump in the standard deduction for each spouse that is over 65 years old.  So $2600 for a couple over 65 years old. The standard deduction before the change was $12,600 for a married couple.

Table 7. Standard Deduction Chart for People Born Before January 2, 1954, or Who Are Blind*

Check the correct number of boxes below. Then go to the chart.
You:   Born before January 2, 1954 □   Blind □
Your spouse:   Born before January 2, 1954 □   Blind □
Total number of boxes you checked  This is an Image: box.gif   
IF
your filing status is...   AND
the number in the box above is...   THEN
your standard deduction is...
Single   1   $13,600
2   15,200
Married filing jointly   1   $25,300
2   26,600
3   27,900
4   29,200
Qualifying widow(er)   1   $25,300
2   26,600
Married filing separately**   1   $13,300
2   14,600
3   15,900
4   17,200
Head of household   1   $19,600
2   21,200
*If someone else can claim you (or your spouse if filing jointly) as a dependent, use Table 8 instead.
**You can check the boxes for "Your spouse" if your filing status is married filing separately and your spouse had no income, isn't filing a return, and can't be claimed as a dependent on another person's return.

Sarge I wish to say thank you for disagreeing with me in a humane way. Many times there are morons here who disagree with me and have to try and make me look stupid in doing so. I respect your opinion and I am glad you respected mine. An opinion is simply an opinion and some people here don't get that.

We are all about learning from each others opinions here Tom. I always try to respect the individual. Just trying to set a good example! Learning from others experiences and opinions is what makes this site so great.

[garyb1st]

I don't necessarily agree. I am totally a "commoner" but never got anywhere close to  the $24,000 standard deduction, even when I did have a house and RV payment. 

I may be mistaken Sarge, but under the previous law, if your deductions actually exceeded the standard deduction of $12,600, you would still be able to claim the personal exemptions.  For example, if your deductions equalled $20,000, you would still be able to claim the personal exemptions for a total of $28,100.  IIRC, the personal exemption amount is reduced for high income earners.  But I think we're talking couples with combined income in excess of $200,000. 

[SargeW]

Not sure myself Gary. I was never in that range, and have no experience with it. It is definite that the new system will not benefit everyone. Just as the old system didn't either.  The one thing it is guaranteed to be is change. And how it shakes out is anyone's guess.

[Conquest2011]

But at least the inheritance tax was repealed so the kids of rich parents won't have to pay billions in inheritance taxes.

At least the family farm doesn't have to be sold to pay inheritance tax.

[SeilerBird]

At least the family farm doesn't have to be sold to pay inheritance tax.

The family farm may end up in Africa if Dorian has her way.

[John From Detroit]

Then following one of the greatest tax reductions in the history of the US, sales started coming down.  Go figure.

Well the folks for whom that "Tax Reduction" was "Great" tend not to be RVERS as they simply have a multi-million dollar home in all the travel spots.

But that is not the point of this post.
Long time ago I compared the cost of living in my Class A to the cost of my Sticks and bricks.  The appraised value of the S&B house and the RV's sticker price. Virtually identical no difference worth typing about.
Taxes over 3000 on the S&B  less than 500 on the RV  (WOW)
Maintenance costs.. Not much different
Water, Power Sewer  over 250/month on S&B 100/month on RV in summer 200 winter  NOTE I said OVER 250   Sometimes as high as 300

Phoen: Same account price has changed due to deals but still the same phone which is in the shop just now getting a new face put on it (OUCH).

Cost of lawn mowing and snow shoveling::: Mostly time and effort with the house but with the RV.. Not my problem so 0.0

In short my life has greatly improved as a result of moving to an RV.

One would assume that with a REAL tax cut people would have more money to spend.  Thus not be so worried about "Conservation of funds" that you get when you full time in a RV.  So RV sales might go down at least till they save up enough to afford "Luxuries"   Since most folks have NOT done the math like I did.

Oh yes and with people spending more. Stores make more.   They hire more workers to stock the shelves.  Profits increase. and thus the store's taxes..  Likewise everybody up the product chain all the way to the Greedy Oil Robber Barons..

But alas. we did not get a real tax cut.  We got an INCREASE.

[PJ Stough]

At least the family farm doesn't have to be sold to pay inheritance tax.

Another red herring.  Anyone who owns a large enough farm who would be affected by inheritance tax, and doesnt do the proper tax planning should pay inheritance tax.

[SeilerBird]

Another red herring.  Anyone who owns a large enough farm who would be affected by inheritance tax, and doesnt do the proper tax planning should pay inheritance tax.

We are not discussing farmers here PJ....

[Oldgator73]

Our taxes went up even though part of my income is derived from disability payments. We probably broke even this year due to claiming our 41 year old 100% unemployable Iraq war vet son. The “tax cut” did nothing for us. But we have the tariffs to look forward to.

[SeilerBird]

My income and income tax has been exactly the same the last few years. This last February my taxes were $300 less. And since I buy a lot of Chinese goods I know that savings was wiped out.

[PJ Stough]

We are not discussing farmers here PJ....

"At least the family farm doesn't have to be sold to pay inheritance tax. "  I was responding to the post of Conquest 2011

[TheBar]

But the tax RATE for 2018 went down 3-4% for everyone between $19k-315k for married filing jointly. The bump in the standard deduction was a huge benefit for me and many other seniors who pay off their S&B house before retirement and can no longer itemize.

https://www.dynamicontent.net/article.php?dcarticleid=1543

[KandT]

Wow, that's still 460,000 NEW Rv's so far this year.  It may be down from last year, but to me those numbers are still amazing.  No wonder RV spots are getting harder to come by.....

Good point.  I wonder how many RV's are retired each year??  Probably an impossible number to come by since some probably just retire in a field until a tree grows up through them. 

Seems like the market could cool off until more sites are developed.   

[KandT]

With so many changes in the tax code, it is not easy to determine as a group who is better off and who is not.  The biggest complaint that you hear the most was that the tax changes were so top heavy.

Aren't all tax reductions going to be top heavy since the income producing lower 45% or so pay almost no taxes?  You cant reduce 0 unless someone is spinning it and saying they should get a tax refund when they haven't paid anything in.

[PancakeBill]

Yes taxes do tend to be top heavy, a 3 percentage on 100 will not be as much as on 1000.  Next, if taking a 2nd mortgage to buy an RV, is still deductible, a loan for an RV is still deductible.  I have checked numerous sources, the change was a lowered limit on the amount of the loan, with $750,000 now vs. the $1,000,000 it was,  I think for the most part our group would still be OK. 

The new standard worked for me, we had nowhere near the standard deductions!  So the raise helped.  My only situation this past year was working in a taxing state on a 1099, but that had nothing to do with the fed tax.

[garyb1st]

http://www.rvforum.net/SMF_forum/index.php/topic,124084.0/topicseen.html

Don't know the history of Newmar's financials, and as a privately held corporation there's going to be lots of speculation, but from my simple perspective, it's another indication that the industry is going south.  At least regarding  the manufacture of luxury motorhomes.  For the luxury motorhome industry to succeed it requires two ingredients.  First buyers who are interested in the RV lifestyle.  Second, and more important, buyers who have the assets to afford the lifestyle. 

Despite what we are told every day, I'm not sure we have the greatest economy in the history of our country.  That would require a growing middle class.  A middle class that had assets, minimal debt and what is probably the most significant element of retiree financial security, a pension.  Sadly, except for public sector employees, a pension is something most retirees following the Baby Boomer Generation will probably not have. 

 

[Lou Schneider]

According to RVIA figures, motorhomes of all types continue to be a niche market with towables outselling powered RVs by almost 8 to 1.  5th wheel trailers outsell Class A motorhomes 4 to 1.

Given the low motorhome numbers, it's not surprising to see some consolidation taking place.

[Drifterrider]

But the big question, will those new billionaires buy motorhomes?   

Sailing yachts.  They buy sailing yachts so they can "go green" with wind power (on million dollar boats).

I want one too but I'd need a crew (sailing is a lot of hard work). 

[TheBar]

Nobody has pointed out or analyzed why the class c market only went down by 3.1% in July.