Let?s Put This Coronavirus ?Hysteria? into Perspective

I started getting sick Sunday. My wife and son had just gotten over being sick. It started with a sore throat and morphed into a cough and then a fever. My wife called our doctor yesterday and he said he wanted me to get the Coronavirus test. So he called the testing center here in Dover and then I was instructed to call the center. They questioned me for about 15 minutes and then I was told I didn?t meet the criteria. Truth be known, I do not have COVID-19 but the reason I did not meet the criteria is I cannot say with any certainty that I came into contact wit someone that tested positive. Another reason I couldn?t get tested is I am not a pro athlete or very rich or a politician.

Oldgator73 said:

the reason I did not meet the criteria is I cannot say with any certainty that I came into contact wit someone that tested positive.

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Patently ridiculous. How does one know who used the gas pump last, the shopping cart, the sink in the restroom?  All the places we are told the virus could be picked up.

Back2PA said:

Patently ridiculous. How does one know who used the gas pump last, the shopping cart, the sink in the restroom?  All the places we are told the virus could be picked up.

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I agree but that is one aspect of the criteria. This is an excerpt from the Delaware site for Coronavirus testing:

? How to determine if you need testing

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommends people call their health care professional if they feel sick with a fever, cough, or difficulty breathing and have been in close contact with a person known to have COVID-19.

My area is starting drive through testing for high risk people tomorrow at the area event center, here is the catch, it is for 2 hours per day 4 days per week limit 130 people per day, to qualify you must be running a fever of over 100.4, and have a cough or shortness of breath plus meet one of the following criteria, be over 60, be diabetic, immune compromised due to HIV or cancer treatment, or have a heart condition (high blood pressure does not count).  Proof of local area residency required, ...

Note this is for a 4 parish (county) area with a combined population of about 300,000 people, of also it is limit of 2 people per car, both must be sitting in the front seat, the site is about 60 miles from my house,...

  Yep.....Y?all are getting hit pretty hard down there.  With the weather warming up, keep your eyes open....and don?t be stepp?n on any Coronas. I?m staying in better touch with my kids since all this started. Even talking with aunts, uncles, and cousins!

  My grandsons are using their, away from school time, catching a lot of fish. So, they may not have TP, but they ain?t going hungry!  ;D  The silver lining, I guess!    memtb

docj said:

As with others who have responded, we also have annual checkups by a dermatologist. Every year he finds things to freeze off or remove for biopsy.

I'm a real believer in this.  My father and a close business associate died from skin cancers that weren't caught in time. Just because they are "on the surface" doesn't mean that they can't do considerable harm.  Even people with darker skin colors can have dangerous skin cancers; one of our acquaintances here in coastal TX has been fighting for her life for 3+ years after having been diagnosed with a kind of melanoma that mostly is found in darker-skinned people.

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  likewise I had a girlfriend many years ago with skin cancer. She had a patch of it cut off her shoulder about the size of the palm of your hand and they grafted a patch on it that they peeled off of her butt. When she would get mad I would tell her "there you go again Shirley with your arse on your shoulders" sadly she died three years later leaving 2 young children. The cancer spread and she died of brain cancer.
  This along with the insistence of my doctors keeps me getting the yearly freeze and cut.

For those that doubt how quickly this thing is getting worse, please see this excerpt from today's Louisiana Health Department daily status update,


Case count
As of noon on March 25, the Department reported 407 additional cases of COVID-19, bringing the total to 1,795.

Hospitalization
Yesterday, 271 COVID-19 patients were hospitalized. Of those, 94 patients required ventilation.

Currently, 491 COVID-19 patients are hospitalized. Of those, 163 patients require ventilation.

Really deadly for a hoax isn't it?

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommends people call their health care professional if they feel sick with a fever, cough, or difficulty breathing and have been in close contact with a person known to have COVID-19.

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And how might any of us know that with any assurance at all?  Do I get names of everybody in the grocery store and track the medical history of each for 14 days thereafter?    If people cannot get tested readily & quickly, how can we know if cousin Ralph or neighbor Sarah has it or not?  Someone in your family or social circle has to get ill enough to be hospitalized in order to prove you have been exposed (and by then it's often too late).    In essence the CDC is saying we can't provide testing unless you are already 99% sure you have COVID-19.  It's confirmation rather than pre-screening.

I get that some (a lot?) of test requests are panic-induced, but if a brief review by a medical pro checks enough boxes on symptoms, it ought to be enough to get a test to know for sure. And that in turn should trigger testing for known associates  so they can take additional measures.    But the entire country lacks the means to do that except for notable exceptions (e.g. celebrities).

I had an appoint with our GP this morning for pre-op screening. It was cancelled while was in his office waiting. He was exposed to someone with confirmed COVID-19 last week. Luckily they were able to reschedule me this afternoon at an alternate location.

ChasA said:

Really deadly for a hoax isn't it?

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    If the flu, which killed approximately 80 K people in the USA during the 2017 -2018 flu season, had gotten nearly this much press.....perhaps many would “not” be skeptical about Covid-19!  memtb

https://www.cnn.com/2018/09/26/health/flu-deaths-2017--2018-cdc-bn/index.html

I went to my dermatologist yesterday for my six-month screening. He found a basal cell carcinoma on my stomach, measured it and took a picture of it, and then told me he would have to take care of it in a few months because the governor of the state of Florida won't put in place a shelter in place order for the entire state, but DID prohibit any non-emergency surgeries. I'm not overly concerned about it because I've 20 of them removed, sometimes waiting for as long as a year from the time they were discovered. But I found it interesting that unless this was life threatening, the doctor can't remove it. He essentially has little to do right now and is thinking of closing his offices. He said the thing that stops him from doing that is his staff. He said he is fortunate that he has had a very successful business and is now at the point that he can afford to keep his staff on at full pay, but he doesn't know how long that may last.

I had an appointment for a "medicare wellness check" but the doctor's office called a week ahead of time and cancelled it. Not a surprise, but they beat me to it.

Gary RV_Wizard said:

  But the entire country lacks the means to do that except for notable exceptions (e.g. celebrities).

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Exactly. In our celebrity obsessed culture I've thought from day one of this health crisis that if/when a major celebrity gets sick & dies from the virus, THAT will get attention far beyond the actual significance. Doctors getting sick & dying? Nurses? Transit workers? Truckers? Yeah, those numbers might make the news but if even ONE celebrity dies...

Well we had a 59 year old "celebrity chef" die yesterday, I suspect it will only be a matter of a few days before some real celebrity dies of it though, just based on statistics.

Memtb said:

    If the flu, which killed approximately 80 K people in the USA during the 2017 -2018 flu season, had gotten nearly this much press.....perhaps many would ?not? be skeptical about Covid-19!  memtb

https://www.cnn.com/2018/09/26/health/flu-deaths-2017--2018-cdc-bn/index.html

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Folks need to get off the flu bandwagon. This ain?t the flu. We do not have a vaccine. We do not have enough test kits to test everybody we think has it. If we did not take the precautions we have taken, although the United States was about 3-4 months behind on the precautions, the deaths would have made the flu look weak.

Oldgator73 said:

Folks need to get off the flu bandwagon. This ain?t the flu. We do not have a vaccine. We do not have enough test kits to test everybody we think has it. If we did not take the precautions we have taken, although the United States was about 3-4 months behind on the precautions, the deaths would have made the flu look weak.

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Totally agree.  We might be able to do a pretty good comparison next year.  Until we can, I'm erring on the side of safety. 

Soooo, please tell me how, that “Dying” from Covid-19, is much worse than “Dying” from the flu.....you’re still dead! The comparison is deaths....not delivery method! 

  Yes, err on the side of caution, take every reasonable precaution available, but wholesale panic” (which many cling to) is not a good precaution! memtb

Memtb said:

Soooo, please tell me how, that ?Dying? from Covid-19, is much worse than ?Dying? from the flu.....you?re still dead! The comparison is deaths....not delivery method!

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Dead is dead.  No argument there.  I have an elevated risk of stroke and cancer runs in my family.  My hope is to die quickly and if possible with minimal pain.  Dying after being on a ventilator for 3 weeks, unable to breath and not having a chance to say goodbye to my loved ones is for me significantly different. 

What is different is that Covid-19 is around 10 times more contagious and roughly 10 times more fatal, more than that if the hospitals get overwhelmed.  It is not about how many people Covid-19 has killed to date, it is how many it may kill next week or next month.

Just looking at my state (Louisiana, one of the hardest hit per capita, with most cases in the New Orleans area), using the death statistics from the state department of health over the last 5 days

5, days ago total deaths in the state 20
4, days ago total deaths in the state 34
3, days ago total deaths in the state 46
2, days ago total deaths in the state 65
1, days ago total deaths in the state 83

Yes I know it is a cumulative count, but consider that the 5 day ago count was 9 days after the first death in the state.    So it took over a week to go from first death to 20 deaths, but less than 2 days to go from 20 to 40, and only 3 mores days to go from 40 to 80.  A sign things may be slowing, but keep in mind all schools, dine in restaurants, bars, and theaters, have been closed here for 11 days, and a stay at home order closing all other non-essential businesses has now been in effect for 4 days (wow it feels longer).

If the trend we were seeing before the stay at home has / had continued, we would be looking at doubling the deaths every 2-3 days, so.  80, +3 days, 160, +3 days 320, +3 days 740, +3 days 1,480, + 3 days 2,960.    In other words in 2 mores weeks if the rate is not slowed, we would be looking at nearly 3,000 deaths in one day in this state alone, and 3 days after that we would be looking at 6,000, then 3 days after that 12,000.    Until everyone had caught it, or at least a high enough percentage of the population that it would burn itself out (somewhere around 50%), with potentially millions dead by the end of the year.    Remember that 3% death rate is with functioning modern hospitals, if the health care system collapses we could be looking at 20% (roughly that number need supportive hospital care, primarily supplemental Oxygen)

Chances are even with the current measures, the death total by the end of the year will make that flu figure look tiny.

p.s. updating with today's death total 119  which is up 36 from yesterday