March/April Sales

Will the Rv's just pile up on dealer lots?  Many States cant be selling them now.  Maybe the industry has tight inventory control and dealers can cancel their orders pretty quickly.

I suspect the bigger deal is that even in states where the dealers are open, almost all the campgrounds, and parks are closed for who knows how long, which probably discourages potential buyers.

It may be a good time to buy especially with a starving salesman

Isaac-1 said:

I suspect the bigger deal is that even in states where the dealers are open, almost all the campgrounds, and parks are closed for who knows how long, which probably discourages potential buyers.

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My guess??  Much of the non retired buyers are out for this year.  They would be buying them now for vacations in the summer and many, many people are struggling.  You cant have unemployment where it is AND a strong diesel pusher market (again, I am speaking of non full timers.)

I dont know the percent of full timers vs. family vacation vehicles but I suspect families make enough of the market to impact sales and price.  Heck look at all the DP bunk models that are out there since 2010.  Pre 2010 bunks were never in DP's.

I somewhat disagree, this is not a normal economic downturn, this has hit certain categories of businesses much harder than others, some are even booming doing much more business than this time last year.  Of course there will likely be a trickle down effect that hits them later.  Having said that since there is no where to go, I doubt we will see many potential buyers.

I have been looking around for an alternative to my TT.  I put my camper on CL and actually had a decent amount of inquiries from individuals and two that would have purchased it after viewing it, even with some issues with it that I passed along to them. They were actually going to make a beach home with it. No one that I spoke with was planning on traveling though, with a couple planning on just sitting it beside their house for now. And it was not a giveaway price. So people are out there still looking at used ones, or at least that's my experience in the past two weeks. I think a lot of people have the travel fever still. They were not bothered by coming with no masks on and seeing it on their own with the doors open.

But its been a real chore to pin a salesman down and get another one purchased since most are wanting to do all the viewing on their webpage and paperwork online.  Most of the outlets are working with the absolute skeleton crew if they are actually manning the sales department. They are pushing service work big time, since I get typical blast emails from them.  So I am just going to be patient and wait things out for now and see what the market does in the next couple of months tops. Then if I don't replace it I will just keep it for now.

I'm not shopping, but I would guess that uncertainty is keeping many (most?) buyers out of the market. Not sure when or even if the economy will recover, not sure when travel can resume, and not sure their income will hold up (even if its is mostly fixed).  I frequent multiple RV sites and people are asking if they should cancel purchases that are already committed, even though they some would lose a deposit. That's serious concern, I'd say.

It is certainly uncertain times volatile times, but as I mentioned before, this is not a general economic downturn, at least not yet.  Economically this is hitting some groups much harder than others, some are fairly neutral or they are taking what is seen as a short term hit, and other are making extra profit.  For those that are retired and get their money from investments, it is also hit or miss, depending on how they were invested, some major stocks are up significantly, others are way down.  Wal-Mart and Amazon stocks are both at 5 year highs, the same can be said for many drug makers, where Exxon and many others are down by about 30%+ since new years.

Isaac-1 said:

It is certainly uncertain times volatile times, but as I mentioned before, this is not a general economic downturn, at least not yet.  Economically this is hitting some groups much harder than others, some are fairly neutral or they are taking what is seen as a short term hit, and other are making extra profit.  For those that are retired and get their money from investments, it is also hit or miss, depending on how they were invested, some major stocks are up significantly, others are way down.  Wal-Mart and Amazon stocks are both at 5 year highs, the same can be said for many drug makers, where Exxon and many others are down by about 30%+ since new years.

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I think though that it would be naive to say that this economy won't have a significant impact on the RV industry.  As someone who is looking to buy (as a non-fulltimer), it is important to understand the market.  My guess is prices will fall as unemployment rises and disposable income heads down. 

Hopefully this is over quickly (24 months) but each year someone owns an RV it loses value and it needs upkeep.  Letting a tree grow up through one in a field is not a good use of funds!

We did quite a quite of shopping for a new 5W last year - online/phone and visiting several dealerships. We negotiated on one unit, but pulled the plug at the last minute. We're currently receiving price-aggressive email offers from dealers who clearly are concerned about getting stuck with inventory going into a year with a lot of uncertainty among buyers (IMHO).

Agree there will be major impact to sales and likely some even more aggressive discounting, maybe to the point of taking a loss. Sale delivery services will deteriorate even further.  And if this continues through the summer season (as seems likely), I expect some RV manufacturers will fail. Or since most of them are now corporate conglomerates, the holding corporation may just put some of their brands in mothballs or offer the brand & factory for sale (but who would buy it in a downturn?).

Gary RV_Wizard said:

Agree there will be major impact to sales and likely some even more aggressive discounting, maybe to the point of taking a loss. Sale delivery services will deteriorate even further.  And if this continues through the summer season (as seems likely), I expect some RV manufacturers will fail. Or since most of them are now corporate conglomerates, the holding corporation may just put some of their brands in mothballs or offer the brand & factory for sale (but who would buy it in a downturn?).

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Agreed Gary.  The people that really suffer is anyone already upside down pre-covid pricing. 

There are lots of RV's for sale and unemployment is skyrocketing.  Oddly, (and I know Gary you always say NADA is just a rough guide) there are plenty of RV's $20,000 above average retail NADA.  I feel like a prudent move for me is too wait to see how this all plays out.  No use in paying today's asking prices when all signs point lower for tomorrow.

Again, for me this is a luxury item. I need to be careful not buy in a plummeting market as I will never be able to get out of it.  Of course, sales tax, registration, depreciation, insurance, storage and maintenance all add up pretty darn quickly so just owning it every month is taking a pretty good hit.  That's assuming there are no major failures.  Oh and budget for fuel and to do something once you get to where you are going!  And if you want to "make it your own" with a new bed etc.

Just my 2 cents worth and I am a cautious person.

KandT said:

Agreed Gary.  The people that really suffer is anyone already upside down pre-covid pricing. 

There are lots of RV's for sale and unemployment is skyrocketing.  Oddly, (and I know Gary you always say NADA is just a rough guide) there are plenty of RV's $20,000 above average retail NADA.  I feel like a prudent move for me is too wait to see how this all plays out.  No use in paying today's asking prices when all signs point lower for tomorrow.

Again, for me this is a luxury item. I need to be careful not buy in a plummeting market as I will never be able to get out of it.  Of course, sales tax, registration, depreciation, insurance, storage and maintenance all add up pretty darn quickly so just owning it every month is taking a pretty good hit.  That's assuming there are no major failures.  Oh and budget for fuel and to do something once you get to where you are going!  And if you want to "make it your own" with a new bed etc.

Just my 2 cents worth and I am a cautious person.

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If you look at RVing as an investment you will never buy one and if you do you will still lose money. It is entertainment, not an investment.

SeilerBird said:

If you look at RVing as an investment you will never buy one and if you do you will still lose money. It is entertainment, not an investment.

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This - Took me 2 years to convince my wife that we were paying for some enjoyment and entertainment; not a motorhome.  I never expect to get my money back on this motorhome.  What I want is for it to meet our needs and desires till we decide to be done traveling or move on to something else that strikes our fancy.  So far it has met my expectations, we are enjoying the traveling and seeing/experiencing things that we would never had otherwise done.
If you find something you like buy it, and enjoy it.  You can't really put a $$$ value on that enjoyment.

SeilerBird said:

If you look at RVing as an investment you will never buy one and if you do you will still lose money. It is entertainment, not an investment.

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That's a very fair point.  I know I will lose money.  The only question is how much?  If I can keep that on the lower side of "a lot" I would be happier than the other side.

Sure and RV is for enjoyment!  I have also seen too many cases where people got all excited and bought something they couldn't afford and that magical piece of enjoyment became a curse.  They are upside down and can't afford to put fuel in it! 

In these unprecedented times, I am trying to make the best purchase I can.  This process will take me a while but it is a luxury purchase and not a necessity.  I have time.  Besides, isn't part of the fun buying it?

I was curious about the thought of people like Gary who have seen the RV industry go through a recession before.  I appreciate his education as that helps me to make a more informed decision! 

Stay healthy all!

There are lots of RV's for sale and unemployment is skyrocketing.  Oddly, (and I know Gary you always say NADA is just a rough guide) there are plenty of RV's $20,000 above average retail NADA.  I feel like a prudent move for me is too wait to see how this all plays out.  No use in paying today's asking prices when all signs point lower for tomorrow.

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Nothing new about that - many RV owners already have an unreasonable expectation for the value of their RV and that is going to get worse as prices plummet.  It's common for the initial asking price to drop by $10k or $20k after a few months , once reality sets in.  A lot of people buy their RV entertainment largely based on it having an affordable manageable monthly payment, without regard to other expenses or the effect of depreciation on their long term financial situation. If the economy goes sour or they get bored with the new RV, it quickly becomes a huge albatross around their neck.

It's good that you are considering all the financial effects of RV ownership, but the tone of this and other posts suggest that you are having buyer's remorse even though you haven't bought anything yet.  You didn't want to buy in an up-market cause prices were too high and nobody was making good deals. Now you don't want to buy in a down-market because values are going down. That's the dilemma of market-timing and there is no answer to it.  At some point you have to commit to a price that has enough value to YOU to be worthwhile, or you have to get out of the market altogether.  There is no point in buying something for entertainment if its primary effect is to cause financial worry.

KandT said:

That's a very fair point.  I know I will lose money.  The only question is how much?  If I can keep that on the lower side of "a lot" I would be happier than the other side.

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How much you are going to lose is an impossible question to answer before you buy the RV. There is no predicting how the economy will go, how much you will use the RV and what exactly goes wrong with the RV that have to get fixed.

We got a reasonable deal on our RV, and I am happy enough. There are probably people who bought cheaper (by a bit) and a lot that bought higher. I feel my time searching is worth something, and the time I gained by buying when I did is worth much more. Our motorhome is used for long trips - 2-4 months at a time. In the last 12 months we have been in the motorhome for at least 8 months. We really enjoyed that time, and waiting for a perfect deal (which as Gary notes isn?t something you can ever guarantee) is a lot of enjoyment cost thrown away. My rig depreciates every day, and that is fine with me. I think of that as just another cost like fuel and oil. But oh my the payback in fun!

It's good that you are considering all the financial effects of RV ownership, but the tone of this and other posts suggest that you are having buyer's remorse even though you haven't bought anything yet.  You didn't want to buy in an up-market cause prices were too high and nobody was making good deals. Now you don't want to buy in a down-market because values are going down. That's the dilemma of market-timing and there is no answer to it.  At some point you have to commit to a price that has enough value to YOU to be worthwhile, or you have to get out of the market altogether.  There is no point in buying something for entertainment if its primary effect is to cause financial worry.

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Very fair point.  Yeah - you are right, I am trying to time the market.  Sometimes being uptight serves me and sometimes it does not.  Good advice.
Edit: Fixed quote tag.

One thing all people should always keep in mind about an RV purchase is cost of ownership, even more so in current times with limited travel options for the foreseeable future.  I suspect for many people owning an RV cost in the long run can rival or exceed the purchase cost.

Lets say someone finances a $45,000 -  $50,000 lightly used motorhome over 8-10 year at a relatively low interest rate where they end up having note payments of about $500 per month.  These people live in a city and must pay for RV storage, which can run $300+ per month in many areas, must have insurance that might amount to another $100 per month or more, plus pay for upkeep on the coach, cover wear items like tires, and batteries, etc. turning their $500 per month note into $1,000+ before adding in all the other incidentals, roadside assistance, major repairs, or extended warranty payments, etc.