ISO a SERIOUS weather geek

My goal: Avoid freezing weather and, preferably, buckets of rain and/or flooding this winter

Set-up: I can only drive 100 miles a day. Repositioning from the OR coast to Northern CA (because Southern CA is too far a trip to make right now) will take 5 days of exhausting and work-disrupting one-night stops, but that was my plan.

Only staying in TT parks, so was going to split my time going back and forth between Manteca and Lotus, CA.

As a CA native, I know that a Monstruo El Ni?o means lots of rain and local flooding in Northern CA. (Lived through two Russian River floods in two months, one year.)

I also know that Seaside and Florence, OR, in a normal year, get 8-10 inches of rain per month in the winter, but do not really freeze/snow.

Question: If I do drive to Northern CA, aren't I actually just driving into another soaking winter this year? Because if I am, I'd rather just stay put. From the little bit I've read, this winter's El Ni?o is not expected to be just a Southern CA phenomenon, but the whole state. It should also mean higher temps (but not necessarily less rain? do not know) in OR and WA.

I've lived through a few El Ninos on the Oregon Coast and I prefer them because of the warmer temperatures. Sometimes on the coast you'll experience high wind conditions but usually the precipitation comes in as a mist. I hear thunder about once per year! Extreme weather is rare.

There is one water concern here on the Oregon Coast, though. Tsunami.

If there is a Cascadia Subduction Zone earthquake, it is likely to be magnitude 9. There will be four to six minutes of intense shaking. Fifteen to twenty minutes later the first of several tsunami wave comes ashore. Think a wall of water 100 feet high. It would be prudent not to park your RV at an elevation of less than 100 feet above sea level.

True; there are tsunami evacuation signs all over Seaside. I don't know what the elevation of the Seaside TT park is, but for me, a tsunami is like an EQ; one of those "oh, well" things. If it happens, it happens. Gotta go sometime. 

I appreciate your experience with the warmer temperatures, though. Do those warmer temps come with more rain, less rain, or about the same?

herekittykitty said:

If it happens, it happens. Gotta go sometime.

Click to expand...

You are likely to survive the earthquake. Being in the path of a tsunami is a different matter.

By the way, Seaside figures prominently in Bonnie Henderson's book, "The Next Tsunami."

The Pacific Northwest will have an estimated one million damaged buildings after the Cascadia Subduction Zone lets go. On the bright side, after the earthquake, the value of your RV increases significantly.

Do those warmer temps come with more rain, less rain, or about the same?

Click to expand...

I suppose more rain but I really didn't notice. You can probably check the Oregon Climate Service Website for the details.

To help you receive any sever weather warnings get a NOAA weather radio with the S.A.M.E. programmability.  With this you can program the radio to receive weather alerts specific to the area you're in.  They're usually around $50 and can be bought at any Radio Shack or on line thru E-Bay.

Hello herekittykitty,

No experience with the area ourselves, but we've heard from other people that the Oregon desert area (East of the Cascades) is much less rainy; haven't heard whether it's warmer, tho. Perhaps it will even be closer to your current location than NorCal... and certainly it will be safe from tsunamis Could be worth a little research on your part.

Here's an article we've bookmarked at the time for future reference: http://www.trailerlife.com/trailer-travel/the-sunny-side-of-oregon/

We're planning on visiting the area in the next few years, if you go please post about your experience.

Cheers,
--
  Vall.

East of the Cascades (Oregon or Washington) is much dryer and also much colder in the winter. Nothing at all like the coastal region.

Hello Gary,

Gary RV Roamer said:

East of the Cascades (Oregon or Washington) is much dryer and also much colder in the winter. Nothing at all like the coastal region.

Click to expand...

Thanks for the info. I didn't know about the "colder" part... at least, being dryer, there's less chance of snow.

Cheers,
--
  Vall.

One of the reasons the coast is decent year-round is that the ocean moderates the temperature.

Have heard about the NOAA weather radio before, but that's just for severe weather warnings, right? I'm looking for long-term trends, which is why I was hoping there might be an amateur meteorologist on these forums somewhere. 

I've been living on the Oregon Coast for 16 years. Here's my climate synopsis:

Summer: High temperatures in the 60s. Sunshine. No rain for weeks at a time. Wind from the northwest.

Winter: High temperatures in the 50s. Light rain every other day. Wind from the southwest.

If you get the rare west wind for more than two days in a row, go to the beach and pick up the arriving flotsam.

herekittykitty said:

'm looking for long-term trends, which is why I was hoping there might be an amateur meteorologist on these forums somewhere. 

Click to expand...

There is an old saying. Climate is what you expect and weather is what you get. No one can predict anything, much less the weather. Just remember, your motorhome has wheels and if you don't like the weather one place you can always move.

Hi herekittykitty,

herekittykitty said:

One of the reasons the coast is decent year-round is that the ocean moderates the temperature.

Click to expand...

No doubt re: the temperature. On the other hand, you have lots of rain and therefore clouds, humidity, etc... as they say, we can't ever have everything ;-)

Have heard about the NOAA weather radio before, but that's just for severe weather warnings, right?

Click to expand...

Yep. We've been using the built-in weather feature in our 2-way radios and they have served us well in this regard (lots of false alarms, the most notorious a tornado alert in the Florida coast that ended up not happening, but as they say, better false-alarmed than sorry).

I'm looking for long-term trends, which is why I was hoping there might be an amateur meteorologist on these forums somewhere. 

Click to expand...

Well, I'm not a meteorologist (amateur or otherwise), but I know how to use the Wunderground.com  (Weather Underground) site. I wonder whether what you want can't be deduced from their Almanac function, see for example for Seaside OR area you mentioned: http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KAST/2015/10/18/MonthlyHistory.html?req_city=Seaside&req_state=OR&reqdb.zip=97138&reqdb.magic=1&reqdb.wmo=99999

Cheers,
--
  Vall.

Have to disagree with you about no one being able to predict the weather, @SeilerBird, especially in an El Nino year. Those predictions have typically been spot-on, IME.

And thanks very much for the synopsis, @cmb! I have no doubt that you are correct.

Having been unable to find out where weather geeks go to discuss these kinds of things, I found the following (plus attachments) from the Climate Prediction Center at NOAA. On the rare chance that anyone else is following this, I am posting them here:

"THE NOVEMBER-DECEMBER-JANUARY (NDJ) 2015 TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK INDICATES ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE FAR WEST, ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. TO THE NORTHEAST, AND SOUTHWARD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC. WITHIN THE CONTIGUOUS U.S., THE CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE GREATEST ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST AND ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TO THE GREAT LAKES WITH PROBABILITIES EXCEEDING 50 PERCENT. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FROM NEW MEXICO TO LOUISIANA WHILE ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO MOST LIKELY FOR ALASKA.

"THE NDJ 2015 PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK INDICATES ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, THE SOUTHWEST, PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE SOUTHEAST NORTHWARD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC. ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE ALSO MOST LIKELY FOR THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN COASTS OF ALASKA.  BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE MOST LIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, NORTHERN ROCKIES AND GREAT LAKES." (Bolding mine)

My answer is: If I want to stay here, it will be warmer and drier into December, but may return to normal rain in Dec. If I want to go to Northern Cal, I will likely not be flooded out.

Since you are full-timing, why are you limiting yourself to those two areas? Why not head a bit east and head for Nevada and Arizona where is it likely to be drier?

Also, you might try a different pattern of driving.  I tend to drive 150-200 miles in one day and then sit in a place for a couple of days or even more.  I would not want to drive every single day.  Having a Class C and being only one person means you will not have to dump your tanks every day.  I dump mine every 3-4 days.  That means all you have to do at a campground is hook and unhook electric and water, which is very easy and fast.  You should not have to even bother with full hookups--just get an electric and water site, or even one with just electric and use the water in your tanks.  (That quarter tank, not the full one!) 

herekittykitty said:

Have to disagree with you about no one being able to predict the weather, @SeilerBird, especially in an El Nino year. Those predictions have typically been spot-on, IME.

Click to expand...

Well then tell me what the weather will be like at my house next week.

JudyJB said:

I tend to drive 150-200 miles in one day and then sit in a place for a couple of days or even more.  I would not want to drive every single day.  Having a Class C and being only one person means you will not have to dump your tanks every day.

Click to expand...

That's what I'm starting to lean to. I only really need electric for 1-3 nights, with something in the fresh tank. I limit my daily drive to ~100 miles because I start to fall asleep otherwise.

I'm still working this out, because my primary focus is trying to work, and even a 100 mile trek can kill a lot of productive hours. My original plan for repositioning was to just "get it all over with" twice a year, because even though I've got it as streamlined as possible, packing/stowing and moving and then unpacking even just the essentials feels so time-consuming.

Appreciate the input!

Frankly, I don't do a lot of unpacking when I travel.  A chair outside is about all I need.  I tend to cook inside in large batches and then just reheat something in the microwave.  (Got chicken and rice cooking now that will give me tonight's dinner and several more in the coming weeks.)

Falling asleep while driving is another situation.  Strangely enough, I had a terrible time with that when I drove a car.  Now that I drive this beast, I almost never get sleepy behind the wheel.  Of course, I tend to stop at almost every rest area to use the bathroom.  Then I have to stop to get a snack from the refrigerator, etc.  I think all this stopping plus the fact that you really have to be alert when you drive these big rigs has made it easier to stay awake.  (Partly retiring and getting more sleep at night has also helped, I am sure.)