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Author Topic: Accuracy of NADA Retail guide?  (Read 3664 times)

hoss10

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Accuracy of NADA Retail guide?
« on: April 13, 2016, 07:07:00 AM »
I was wondering just how accurate the NADA on-line retail guide is.  I've noticed that some Travel Tailers depreciate much more quickly then others. Is like with cars and trucks were some models just have a much higher resale value, based on reliability and design?

Thanks for the help.

SeilerBird

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Re: Accuracy of NADA Retail guide?
« Reply #1 on: April 13, 2016, 07:08:20 AM »
It is a not accurate at all. It is merely a guess, a starting point and a hope.
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Gary RV_Wizard

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Re: Accuracy of NADA Retail guide?
« Reply #2 on: April 13, 2016, 09:13:52 AM »
What Seilerbird says. The free online guide is an estimated straight-line depreciation and does not take any market factors into account. If you want more accuracy, you have to buy the subscription version. Even that is just a slightly better guess, since there is not enough statistical info available on each brand & model to give meaningful results. Motorhome data tends to be better than trailers, perhaps because there are fewer brands and a more active dealer auction market to report sales data.
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NickB

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Re: Accuracy of NADA Retail guide?
« Reply #3 on: April 13, 2016, 09:42:22 AM »
I was wondering just how accurate the NADA on-line retail guide is
.
It is and it isn't. It's values don't always reflect what a trailer will actually fetch on the market, but it is still the standard. Since most lenders will use NADA exclusively to determine Loan-to-value calculations, it becomes a huge factor on what a dealer can sell a camper for(and still be able to offer financing), therefore determining what we can pay for them on trade. This in turn, determines marketable value across dealerships and private sales. So, NADA does determine market values for used RVs.

The consumer version of NADA.com no longer offers wholesale prices, only retail.The "Average Retail" that they give you is the same "Used Retail" value that they give dealers.  We don't use that for anything - it's a worthless number. However, you can roughly determine the wholesale with the following formula:
Subtract the "Low Retail" value from the "Average Retail" value. Subtract the result from the "Low Retail" to get a ball park wholesale value. In other words, the Low Retail is around 1/2 way between the Wholesale value and the Average Retail value.

I've noticed that some Travel Tailers depreciate much more quickly then others. Is like with cars and trucks were some models just have a much higher resale value, based on reliability and design?
It's true that certain models have always had higher NADA values, but not necessarily that it's determined on reliability or design. As far as I can gather, it has mostly to do with MSRPs. Some manufacturers (such as Jayco) have always had their MSRPs listed much higher than comparable models, even though actual invoice prices may have been similar. Their values end up being higher on NADA.

Another major consideration is "options". It happens fairly often that a customer gets on NADA.com, clicks every option and determines that their trade-in is worth 30-40% more than we can actually pay for it. Generally, a dealership is going to consider Base NADA(no options) as a base trade in value since most of those were actually standard equipment. Some adjustments will be made from there for condition, actual options & additions, and local market conditions.

Here's the short: NADA is not necessarily accurate, but it determines market pricing anyway.
« Last Edit: April 13, 2016, 09:54:16 AM by NickB »
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scottydl

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Re: Accuracy of NADA Retail guide?
« Reply #4 on: April 13, 2016, 09:48:24 AM »
NADA is not gospel (no printed guide really is because there are so many other factors), but it does have value and can be used effectively for ballpark figures.  I've used NADA to estimate both purchase and sales prices for both of my RV's.  When I bought & sold our motorhome using NADA as a guide, I felt like the prices I paid/received were fair on both ends based on the market and other used RV's in my area.  And similarly, I used NADA to negotiate the price of our current TT and I know I got a GREAT price on it... again based on what area dealers were asking for similar models.  All were private party sales in my case.
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SargeW

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Re: Accuracy of NADA Retail guide?
« Reply #5 on: April 13, 2016, 10:28:26 AM »
I think Nick's explanation is accurate. Interestingly though the accuracy of the "guide" depends on whom is relying on it. I have bought and sold or traded several RV's (too many).  If the dealer was selling me the RV, then Nada was the bible. It I was trading him my RV and arguing for better trade in valve, then Nada was "just a guide".
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hoss10

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Re: Accuracy of NADA Retail guide?
« Reply #6 on: April 13, 2016, 11:56:43 AM »
Thanks for all the very detailed responses,  so I guess it's not a "Blue Book"  type reference used by car sales but more of a guide.

The reason I asked about depreciation is the two models we are looking at, one from Coachman and the other from Jayco, come up as having a much higher depreciation on the Coachman unit. Same year length and similar layout but a new list of about 20% more then Jayco while having a lower used value, strange.

NickB

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Re: Accuracy of NADA Retail guide?
« Reply #7 on: April 13, 2016, 11:58:48 AM »
The reason I asked about depreciation is the two models we are looking at, one from Coachman and the other from Jayco, come up as having a much higher depreciation on the Coachman unit. Same year length and similar layout but a new list of about 20% more then Jayco while having a lower used value, strange.
It's true that certain models have always had higher NADA values, but not necessarily that it's determined on reliability or design. As far as I can gather, it has mostly to do with MSRPs. Some manufacturers (such as Jayco) have always had their MSRPs listed much higher than comparable models, even though actual invoice prices may have been similar. Their values end up being higher on NADA.
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hoss10

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Re: Accuracy of NADA Retail guide?
« Reply #8 on: April 13, 2016, 12:15:12 PM »
It's actually the other way around Nick the Coachman has a 20% higher list then the Jayco but a lower used value.  Perhaps Coachman also inflates their MSRP.

NickB

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Re: Accuracy of NADA Retail guide?
« Reply #9 on: April 13, 2016, 12:18:25 PM »
It's actually the other way around Nick the Coachman has a 20% higher list then the Jayco but a lower used value.  Perhaps Coachman also inflates their MSRP.
That is strange. What's the year and models?
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hoss10

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Re: Accuracy of NADA Retail guide?
« Reply #10 on: April 13, 2016, 12:41:44 PM »
2011 Jay Feather 242 and 2011 Coachman Freedom Express 242RBS.

NickB

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Re: Accuracy of NADA Retail guide?
« Reply #11 on: April 13, 2016, 01:15:58 PM »
Not sure what happened. I pulled them both as I'd expected.
Base wholesale (dealer):
Jayco $11,800 / Coachmen $11,100
Retail (nada.com):
Jayco $16,850 / Coachmen $15,000

They're pretty similar, but the Jayco shines a little brighter as far as quality.
We'd probably sell those on our lot somewhere around:
Jayco $13,900 / Coachmen $12,900 or $13,400
PDI'd, inspected and with a warranty.
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hoss10

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Re: Accuracy of NADA Retail guide?
« Reply #12 on: April 13, 2016, 03:54:04 PM »
Thanks very much for that Nick and everyone else, I really appreciate it.  The deal I was offered was a little higher then your off the lot estimate but it includes Equalizer and Sway bars and Brake controller all installed, and a 1 year warranty.

 The Jayco does seem a little better finished off, especially the furniture. I am still wondering why they switched to leaf springs for the 2011 Selects (with the Cree 3000 equalized)  and then  went back to Torsion Bars for a few years. 

Thanks again. Ted
« Last Edit: April 13, 2016, 05:42:57 PM by hoss10 »