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Author Topic: Hurricane Dorian  (Read 11884 times)

Rene T

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Hurricane Dorian
« on: August 28, 2019, 12:00:30 PM »
For all you members living on the FL and Georgia coast, it's just about time to take precautionary measures to be safe. At 11:00 AM today, the National Hurricane Center said that it will increase to a Cat 3 storm but they're not sure where it will hit the coast. One weather guy said it may hit in the area of Orlando. Stay safe and don't take chances.
« Last Edit: August 28, 2019, 12:05:50 PM by Rene T »
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SeilerBird

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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #1 on: August 28, 2019, 12:07:33 PM »
I have been watching Dorian for a week now ever since it left Africa. There are a few dozen different spaghetti models only one hits Orlando. Most end up hitting near Jacksonville.

Rene T

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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #2 on: August 28, 2019, 12:15:29 PM »
I hope you're right Tom but they did say at 11:30 AM that "The center's forecasts currently predict the storm will make landfall near an area that's level with Orlando. But that potential location is subject to change drastically, as the storm develops".
Rene, Lucille & co-pilot Buddy
AKA  Pep N Mem
2011 Chevy Duramax 2500 HD 4X4
2011 Montana High Country 343RL
From the Granite State of NH
& Florida Snowbird in Lakeland FL

SeilerBird

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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #3 on: August 28, 2019, 12:40:43 PM »
When has a Florida weatherman ever been right?

Isaac-1

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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #4 on: August 28, 2019, 03:51:54 PM »
Best of luck to all of you in and around Florida, and I sympathize with what you are dealing with, we have it bad enough here in Louisiana, but at least we don't have to deal with a long peninsula with few north/south highways during hurricane evacuations.
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Gary RV_Wizard

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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #5 on: August 28, 2019, 05:12:39 PM »
I've lived in Florida for 42 years and the it's my experienced opinion that until the storm hits the Gulfstream waters along Florida's eastern shore, it's anybody's guess where it might go.  The models don't have enough parameters to cover the possible effect of a variable stream of warm water under a major storm cell. The track could change drastically Saturday evening-Sunday morning, or not at all.  I've even seen them do a 180!
My house insurance is paid up and we are in western North Carolina, so we are prepared!  8)
« Last Edit: August 28, 2019, 05:14:19 PM by Gary RV_Wizard »
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SeilerBird

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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #6 on: August 28, 2019, 05:17:14 PM »
For the last two years I have read predictions in both spring times claiming that there would be an abnormal amount of hurricane activity that year. They were dead wrong last year and so far they are not correct for this year. I think they all want to be able to claim they predicted the hurricanes. As Gary said there just is no way to predict the path of a hurricane. Way too many variables. It is really impossible to predict a week in advance.

John From Detroit

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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #7 on: August 28, 2019, 05:27:55 PM »
I was in Townsend (S.E. Georgia) for Matthew 3 miles from the mandatory evac line with a blown engine..  That was then. Now I'm in eastern MI. about miles from the evac line.

Much nicer... I have no desire to get that close to another himmicane.
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Gary RV_Wizard

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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #8 on: August 28, 2019, 05:41:04 PM »
I think the political and media pressure have had a severely negative effect on the usefulness of hurricane forecasts. Not so much on the weatherman as on local pols and emergency admins. They are afraid of accusations they didn't do enough, so run around like headless chickens and [try to] panic everybody into expensive and highly disruptive actions that are going to be a waste for 90+% of the people.  I get that many people are complacent or downright foolish, but Crying Wolf doesn't help.

I suppose in a perfect world the entire state of Florida would be boarded up and hunkered down already, but it ain't gonna happen.
Gary
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SeilerBird

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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #9 on: August 28, 2019, 05:55:32 PM »
I suppose in a perfect world the entire state of Florida would be boarded up and hunkered down already, but it ain't gonna happen.
Like this:

JackL

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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #10 on: August 28, 2019, 06:04:06 PM »
keeping our fingers crossed !
 Two years ago the sea water surge from hurricane Irma totaled our one year old trailer in Key Largo, which have since replaced.
 We can take the wind, ( I think), since our hurricane tie downs worked for Irma but don't want the surge.

Jack L

Isaac-1

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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #11 on: August 28, 2019, 06:16:39 PM »
Gary, I tend to agree, too much of the official forecast track is pushed by politics, and not by science, those of us in western Louisiana suffer from this every time there is a hurricane in the gulf, until the last minute it seems the forecast track is always pointing them at Pensacola,  New Orleans or Galveston/Houston in order to encourage evacuations of the major population centers where it might hit, instead of the more rural areas in between where the science says it is most likely to hit.
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LarsMac

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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #12 on: August 28, 2019, 06:32:41 PM »
I think the political and media pressure have had a severely negative effect on the usefulness of hurricane forecasts. Not so much on the weatherman as on local pols and emergency admins. They are afraid of accusations they didn't do enough, so run around like headless chickens and [try to] panic everybody into expensive and highly disruptive actions that are going to be a waste for 90+% of the people.  I get that many people are complacent or downright foolish, but Crying Wolf doesn't help.

I suppose in a perfect world the entire state of Florida would be boarded up and hunkered down already, but it ain't gonna happen.

Yeah, look at Charley, back in 2004. They told everybody in Tampa Bay area it was coming for them, and they all went to Orlando. Charley turned and blew through Orlando.
Both the Tampa and Orlando people complained about the Weather service after that one.

 

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Laura & Charles

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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #13 on: August 28, 2019, 06:55:22 PM »
I moved from Florida in 2003. I remember the 2004 season and a sign someone posted in front of their house:
1-Charley
2-Frances
3-Ivan
4-Sale
Was feeling pretty smug about leaving all that. Then Ike hit in 2008 ... once on shore, Ike found his overdrive and zoomed up the Ohio River Valley in like a day and a half... still had 80 mph winds when he made Columbus, Ohio. They didnít call him a hurricane that far inland, but there were enough businesses without power and roofs sporting blue tarps that it sure seemed like I was back in SFL.
Stay safe everybody!
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LarsMac

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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #14 on: August 28, 2019, 07:06:23 PM »
I have been watching Dorian for a week now ever since it left Africa. There are a few dozen different spaghetti models only one hits Orlando. Most end up hitting near Jacksonville.

I seldom put much faith in the "Spaghetti Model" approach.

Though probabilities, based on the Storm force Wind Speed Probabilities charts tend to give a good idea where things are going.

The highest probabilities at the moment suggest folks in the area from Melbourne to the Palm Beaches should re-think their Labor Day plans.
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John From Detroit

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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #15 on: August 29, 2019, 08:12:42 AM »
About the politics.. Well the Weather folks once burned do tend to be more shall we say Cautious (Liberal with the warnings). but that's not politics that is nature (Once bitten twice shy as they say) I've seen it with tornados  ALL CLEAR. followed by 7 Tornados, followed by "Tornado watch" every time it rained.

The real politics of this mess has me ticked to the point I'm not going to comment further because this is not a political forum..

Oh the final outcome of the ALL CLEAR - 7 Tornados was a good thing.. Sky Warn. A large group of TRAINED weather spotters who track storms and storm conditions so as you get warned with Mr. Tornado is approaching.. 
Nothing adds excitement like something that is none of your business
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Oldgator73

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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #16 on: August 29, 2019, 08:29:46 AM »
We have experienced almost every type of natural disaster. Hurricanes, tornadoes, earthquakes, floods, forest fires, droughts, blizzards, extreme heat (120F), extreme cold (-50F). You just have to be prepared. I donít think the weather folks are driven by politics. I think they are just being cautious. They would much rather tell you the worst is going to happen and then nothing does than tell you not to worry and your area gets blown off the map.
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Rene T

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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #17 on: August 29, 2019, 08:32:50 AM »
I would rather have the Weather Folks say the worse hurricane of the century is coming and for everyone to evacuate then to say it will be a small rain storm and to stay put and 1000's of people die because of it.
Sorry Gator. You beat me to the punch.
Rene, Lucille & co-pilot Buddy
AKA  Pep N Mem
2011 Chevy Duramax 2500 HD 4X4
2011 Montana High Country 343RL
From the Granite State of NH
& Florida Snowbird in Lakeland FL

Isaac-1

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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #18 on: August 29, 2019, 11:32:47 AM »
The problem with hurricanes is you never know what to expect, it all depends on how big they are, not just max wind speed, but also the size of the footprint, and how close you are to its path.  Over the years any number of hurricanes have passed by where I live about 80 miles inland, some have left downed trees, lots of rain water, etc., but only one that I recall in the last 40+ years has been significant, that was Rita which hit our side of the state 3 weeks after Katrina hit New Orleans.  The national news did not cover Rita much, they were still busy covering the rioting and conditions in New Orleans, Rita was bad though, at one point before landfall it was the 2nd strongest hurricane ever recorded in the gulf of mexico.   We were lucky where I live, only about 20-30% of the houses had significant roof damage, 40 miles south of us that number went up to 60%, and for the 25 miles closest to the coast almost nothing was left standing, only a handful of buildings in the coastal town of Cameron survived including the stone court house, grocery stores were stripped to the structural iron, houses were simply gone.  At my house we were without power for 5 days, we were one of the lucky ones, my father who lived about 10 miles south on a major highway was without power for over 3 weeks, and I knew people in more rural areas within 10 or so miles of town that were without power for over 6 weeks.   A year later power still had not been restored to much of the coastal area, though it did not matter as no structures were left standing, peak high water mark was at 14 feet above sea level, which is significant in a parish (county) where the highest point 3 feet.
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HappyWanderer

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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #19 on: August 29, 2019, 03:04:48 PM »
Weather guessers are driven by ratings, not politics.
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SeilerBird

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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #20 on: August 29, 2019, 03:17:17 PM »
Weather guessers are driven by ratings, not politics.
Amen. 8)

Arch Hoagland

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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #21 on: August 29, 2019, 11:01:51 PM »
Gary RV_Wizard said:
"I think the political and media pressure have had a severely negative effect on the usefulness of hurricane forecasts."

I agree 1,000% 
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Irover

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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #22 on: August 30, 2019, 07:44:55 AM »
  I don't mess with hurricanes! I just to heck outta Dodge!
Don't ever give up!! keep pushing toward the goal!!!
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SpencerPJ

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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #23 on: August 30, 2019, 09:06:11 AM »
It's like the little boy that cried wolf.
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Irover

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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #24 on: August 31, 2019, 07:27:46 AM »
It's like the little boy that cried wolf.

 8) 8) Best to be safe than sorry! I remember what happened to Andrews Air Force Base!
Don't ever give up!! keep pushing toward the goal!!!
USAEUR; 1st Armored Div., E Co.123rd Maintenance Btln. 71-74

LarsMac

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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #25 on: August 31, 2019, 09:45:28 AM »
Looks now like it will scrub the Eastern coastline for a few days.
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John From Detroit

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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #26 on: August 31, 2019, 10:08:19 AM »
There is a graphic on face book that actually is true. The weather forcaster on TV is warning everyone to get outta town and head to safe ground (A shelter outside the storm area).. But he adds. "For those of you who deny science and believe it is iall fake.. Stay put and enjoy the storm" or words to that effect.

Sadly there are those who WILL do just that.. and many of them will simply Disappear.

The good news. Emergency communications are already in place. have been for a long, long time.  And though I'll be sitting out this hurricane here in MI.... I'm part of that network along with several thousands of others across this great nation.
Nothing adds excitement like something that is none of your business
My Home is where I park it.

Oldgator73

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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #27 on: August 31, 2019, 11:09:38 AM »
Folks have been told to evacuate during forest fires and there are those that refuse. Folks are told to evacuate during flooding and some refuse. Folks are told they need to evacuate because a hurricane is headed that way and some refuse. Itís okay to refuse to leave your home but know that you will either be laughing at those that did or you will be dead. You choose.
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Gary RV_Wizard

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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #28 on: August 31, 2019, 12:00:42 PM »
"Evacuate" is easy advice to give but a difficult and expensive decision to undertake.  Uncertainty is a big part of what makes it so difficult.  Uncertain if the severe part of the storm will actually hit your area and uncertain where to go to get out of the way.  Plus it's a major financial and logistic decision. Nobody would sweat the money and hassle if the danger was a sure thing, but a large percentage of those in the potential path will in fact be in little or no danger at all.  Last, evacuating ahead of time doesn't solve one significant piece of the problem: protecting your home and business.
We've lived in Florida 42 years and each year there are 3-5 warnings that our lives are in danger.  In that time, about 6 storms actually hit close to our home and only 2 of those caused damage. None life-threatening, I might add. That doesn't mean we take the storms lightly, but we don't run away screaming either.  Another bit of irony: There have been 3 other occasions when a hurricane came close enough to threaten us, one of them enough so that we did actually evacuate. Those 3 were in upstate NY, central PA, and western NC. Not Florida.  ???
Gary
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Lou Schneider

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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #29 on: August 31, 2019, 12:13:12 PM »
Folks have been told to evacuate during forest fires and there are those that refuse. Folks are told to evacuate during flooding and some refuse. Folks are told they need to evacuate because a hurricane is headed that way and some refuse. Itís okay to refuse to leave your home but know that you will either be laughing at those that did or you will be dead. You choose.

One old man refused to believe Mt. St. Helens was a threat and refused to leave his Spirit Lake home when the evacuation orders were issued.  He made national headlines for a few days, laughing at those who fled.

Then not only his house but the entire lake vanished in a matter of seconds when the volcano erupted.
« Last Edit: August 31, 2019, 12:21:26 PM by Lou Schneider »