Can every new car and truck in the USA be electric by 2035?

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John From Detroit

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Did you do it nonstop? I wonder how many DC fast charge stations you passed during that 300 miles.

-Don- Cold Springs Valley, NV

No I had several stops and far as I know not one of them. but had I had to stop to recharge that would have added time to the trip. Way more than the stop I made for gas (Tank was not full far from it in fact, when I set out.. 30+mpg at 65MPH on the freeway
 

Viajeros

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No I had several stops and far as I know not one of them. but had I had to stop to recharge that would have added time to the trip. Way more than the stop I made for gas (Tank was not full far from it in fact, when I set out.. 30+mpg at 65MPH on the freeway
Yah that can happen. But for us we don’t generally stop to charge, we just charge while we are stopped. No lost time that way.

But everybody travels differently. There is no right way to do it.
 

Viajeros

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None of my stops were near charging stations.
Yah. That happens as well and not everywhere has the same infrastructure in place. Where we travel Superchargers and DCFC are already common and more and more all the time, so easy to coordinate our stops with charging facilities.

Infrastructure will improve over time.
 

JayArr

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The next time you listen to one of the "announcements" pay careful attention and you will probably hear the term "light duty". All "light duty" vehicles will be electric by 2035.

I looked up the definition of "light duty" and it is vehicles below 8500 pounds GVWR. NOT their actual weight - their GVWR. So everything up to minivans and small SUVs, I think 1/2 ton pickups will be included. As soon as the vehicle gets larger, like a work truck or an RV then it's not in the category they are talking about and can remain ICE (for now).

I suspect that the manufacturers will take the better selling of the SUVs that are just below the limit and beef them up so they are 8501 GVWR. Other, less popular, vehicles near the limit may be converted to EV or just discontinued.
 

Viajeros

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I can see that happening. For us RVers it will affect those of us who plan to tow with the mid-weight SUV category. I think even some 1/2 tons are knocking on the door of 8500 though. I can see companies like dodge who are way behind on the EV front just solving the problem with upping the GVWR.

Interesting times.
 

Doc Roads

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Electric Vehicles will primarily pay off for the urban area. Urban areas produce (way) more Carbon emissions than rural areas. There’s the ROI in the next 20-30 years. So, we should focus the investment on the urban environment ... infrastructure investment and power production will have to support a strategy that cuts down urban emissions first. The focus is more feasible too. Infrastructure investment focused on Denver will pay off much faster and be executed quicker than a strategy that covers the I-25 from WY to NM and I-70 from KS to UT ... or the whole state. Traditionally, leading edge new technologies (like electricity) are put in place in cities before the country. I don’t see the current EV initiative being done any other way ... within the current budget.
 

JayArr

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I was also told by a very well informed environmentalist that the goal isn't to remove all of the ICE vehicles, just enough to make the difference. He figures if we can get 70% of cars switched over to EV then the other 30% won't be a big enough problem. Sort of like grading on a bell curve, if we get all the cummuter cars in all the cities switched to EV it will make such a big difference that those of us that want to continue to drive large ICE vehicles out in the countryside will no longer be a problem worth attacking.
 

Mark_K5LXP

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When the demand for fossil fuels diminishes by even a fraction of that amount, expect the price to skyrocket and availability to diminish. It's not an industry that scales linearly to demand. So the percentage of people still driving ICE vehicles are going to be paying way more for fuel than what we see today. Which of course will tip the scales to EV's and for those applications where the ICE is required, the cost of those goods and services will also increase, which translates to everybody including EV drivers to pay more. The guvmint can legislate, mandate and incentivize to a point, but at the end of the day we're all going to pay one way or another.

Mark B.
Albuquerque, NM
 

DonTom

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The guvmint can legislate, mandate and incentivize to a point, but at the end of the day we're all going to pay one way or another.
In some ways. But I wouldn't be surprised if the oil price goes down instead of up. There will be so little demand and the higher oil prices along with cheaper EVs can cause many ICE vehicle owners to switch to EVs where possible.

Also, no engine oil with EVs. A lot less maintenance, etc.

This is what the younger people really need to worry about.

73, -Don- AA6GA Auburn, CA
 

Mark_K5LXP

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As witnessed during the pandemic, when the demand goes down the cost effectiveness to extract the stuff from some places goes away. Wells here in NM shuttered and oil revenues vanished. Some refineries were shut down due to the reduction in demand. The fact gasoline prices went down was more a consequence of having a surplus from the inertia of the pre-pandemic demand, after a while that surplus would be consumed and the price point would correct. With the proportion of fuel vs other petroleum products shifted there will be impacts to industry and goods as well.

I drove an EV for 10 years and kept meticulous records on operation and maintenance. At the same time I had a Mercury grand marquis, by today's standards a "big" car. In that time frame I could show that the marquis was a more cost effective car to own. EV's may not need the regular maintenance that an ICE car does, but when something does need attention it's more expensive. With some EV's a replacement battery may be more than the car is worth after 10 years or so. Surely over time all that settles out and at the end of the day it is what it is, and people that can afford it, will.

I don't see solar as being as major a player as that article suggests. It's a bit more deployable than wind but at the end of the day it's an expensive way to generate power, and like wind it suffers from intermittent generation (weather, night). On a residential scale I see it as a way to sell financing costs to unsuspecting homeowners, on large scales it's a way to cram fees and expenses onto utility rate payers. Then throw in most of the panels come from an enemy of the U.S. and are created by a pretty environmentally unfriendly process, so I'm not seeing what problem they solve. This too will settle out as systems are deployed and real world numbers derived.

Mark B.
Albuquerque, NM
 

DonTom

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With some EV's a replacement battery may be more than the car is worth after 10 years or so.
That is why the batteries have such a long warranty. And by the time the battery warranty expires, new batteries are likely much cheaper.

It's rare to need an EV battery replacement, more common in ten years will be reduced range, along with the faster charging to full.

But for now, the battery is around half the value of the EV. That could change.

73, -Don- AA6GA Auburn, CA
 
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Viajeros

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If they don't solve any problems, why change?
Most people who buy EV’s buy them for reasons like superior performance, convenience of charging at home, better tech, superior driving dynamic, super low maintenance. Never a smell of exhaust or oil in the garage. Even having to drive using a brake pedal feels...weird...in an ice vehicle. Fuel is a fraction of the cost. It’s definitely like stepping back in time.

Jmho.
 
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