Hurricane Dorian

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Rene T

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For all you members living on the FL and Georgia coast, it's just about time to take precautionary measures to be safe. At 11:00 AM today, the National Hurricane Center said that it will increase to a Cat 3 storm but they're not sure where it will hit the coast. One weather guy said it may hit in the area of Orlando. Stay safe and don't take chances.
 
I have been watching Dorian for a week now ever since it left Africa. There are a few dozen different spaghetti models only one hits Orlando. Most end up hitting near Jacksonville.
 
I hope you're right Tom but they did say at 11:30 AM that "The center's forecasts currently predict the storm will make landfall near an area that's level with Orlando. But that potential location is subject to change drastically, as the storm develops".
 
Best of luck to all of you in and around Florida, and I sympathize with what you are dealing with, we have it bad enough here in Louisiana, but at least we don't have to deal with a long peninsula with few north/south highways during hurricane evacuations.
 
I've lived in Florida for 42 years and the it's my experienced opinion that until the storm hits the Gulfstream waters along Florida's eastern shore, it's anybody's guess where it might go.  The models don't have enough parameters to cover the possible effect of a variable stream of warm water under a major storm cell. The track could change drastically Saturday evening-Sunday morning, or not at all.  I've even seen them do a 180!
My house insurance is paid up and we are in western North Carolina, so we are prepared!  8)
 
For the last two years I have read predictions in both spring times claiming that there would be an abnormal amount of hurricane activity that year. They were dead wrong last year and so far they are not correct for this year. I think they all want to be able to claim they predicted the hurricanes. As Gary said there just is no way to predict the path of a hurricane. Way too many variables. It is really impossible to predict a week in advance.
 
I was in Townsend (S.E. Georgia) for Matthew 3 miles from the mandatory evac line with a blown engine..  That was then. Now I'm in eastern MI. about miles from the evac line.

Much nicer... I have no desire to get that close to another himmicane.
 
I think the political and media pressure have had a severely negative effect on the usefulness of hurricane forecasts. Not so much on the weatherman as on local pols and emergency admins. They are afraid of accusations they didn't do enough, so run around like headless chickens and [try to] panic everybody into expensive and highly disruptive actions that are going to be a waste for 90+% of the people.  I get that many people are complacent or downright foolish, but Crying Wolf doesn't help.

I suppose in a perfect world the entire state of Florida would be boarded up and hunkered down already, but it ain't gonna happen.
 
Gary RV_Wizard said:
I suppose in a perfect world the entire state of Florida would be boarded up and hunkered down already, but it ain't gonna happen.
Like this:
 

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keeping our fingers crossed !
Two years ago the sea water surge from hurricane Irma totaled our one year old trailer in Key Largo, which have since replaced.
We can take the wind, ( I think), since our hurricane tie downs worked for Irma but don't want the surge.

Jack L
 
Gary, I tend to agree, too much of the official forecast track is pushed by politics, and not by science, those of us in western Louisiana suffer from this every time there is a hurricane in the gulf, until the last minute it seems the forecast track is always pointing them at Pensacola,  New Orleans or Galveston/Houston in order to encourage evacuations of the major population centers where it might hit, instead of the more rural areas in between where the science says it is most likely to hit.
 
Gary RV_Wizard said:
I think the political and media pressure have had a severely negative effect on the usefulness of hurricane forecasts. Not so much on the weatherman as on local pols and emergency admins. They are afraid of accusations they didn't do enough, so run around like headless chickens and [try to] panic everybody into expensive and highly disruptive actions that are going to be a waste for 90+% of the people.  I get that many people are complacent or downright foolish, but Crying Wolf doesn't help.

I suppose in a perfect world the entire state of Florida would be boarded up and hunkered down already, but it ain't gonna happen.

Yeah, look at Charley, back in 2004. They told everybody in Tampa Bay area it was coming for them, and they all went to Orlando. Charley turned and blew through Orlando.
Both the Tampa and Orlando people complained about the Weather service after that one.



 
I moved from Florida in 2003. I remember the 2004 season and a sign someone posted in front of their house:
1-Charley
2-Frances
3-Ivan
4-Sale
Was feeling pretty smug about leaving all that. Then Ike hit in 2008 ... once on shore, Ike found his overdrive and zoomed up the Ohio River Valley in like a day and a half... still had 80 mph winds when he made Columbus, Ohio. They didn?t call him a hurricane that far inland, but there were enough businesses without power and roofs sporting blue tarps that it sure seemed like I was back in SFL.
Stay safe everybody!
 
SeilerBird said:
I have been watching Dorian for a week now ever since it left Africa. There are a few dozen different spaghetti models only one hits Orlando. Most end up hitting near Jacksonville.

I seldom put much faith in the "Spaghetti Model" approach.

Though probabilities, based on the Storm force Wind Speed Probabilities charts tend to give a good idea where things are going.

The highest probabilities at the moment suggest folks in the area from Melbourne to the Palm Beaches should re-think their Labor Day plans.
 
About the politics.. Well the Weather folks once burned do tend to be more shall we say Cautious (Liberal with the warnings). but that's not politics that is nature (Once bitten twice shy as they say) I've seen it with tornados  ALL CLEAR. followed by 7 Tornados, followed by "Tornado watch" every time it rained.

The real politics of this mess has me ticked to the point I'm not going to comment further because this is not a political forum..

Oh the final outcome of the ALL CLEAR - 7 Tornados was a good thing.. Sky Warn. A large group of TRAINED weather spotters who track storms and storm conditions so as you get warned with Mr. Tornado is approaching.. 
 
We have experienced almost every type of natural disaster. Hurricanes, tornadoes, earthquakes, floods, forest fires, droughts, blizzards, extreme heat (120F), extreme cold (-50F). You just have to be prepared. I don?t think the weather folks are driven by politics. I think they are just being cautious. They would much rather tell you the worst is going to happen and then nothing does than tell you not to worry and your area gets blown off the map.
 
I would rather have the Weather Folks say the worse hurricane of the century is coming and for everyone to evacuate then to say it will be a small rain storm and to stay put and 1000's of people die because of it.
Sorry Gator. You beat me to the punch.
 
The problem with hurricanes is you never know what to expect, it all depends on how big they are, not just max wind speed, but also the size of the footprint, and how close you are to its path.  Over the years any number of hurricanes have passed by where I live about 80 miles inland, some have left downed trees, lots of rain water, etc., but only one that I recall in the last 40+ years has been significant, that was Rita which hit our side of the state 3 weeks after Katrina hit New Orleans.  The national news did not cover Rita much, they were still busy covering the rioting and conditions in New Orleans, Rita was bad though, at one point before landfall it was the 2nd strongest hurricane ever recorded in the gulf of mexico.  We were lucky where I live, only about 20-30% of the houses had significant roof damage, 40 miles south of us that number went up to 60%, and for the 25 miles closest to the coast almost nothing was left standing, only a handful of buildings in the coastal town of Cameron survived including the stone court house, grocery stores were stripped to the structural iron, houses were simply gone.  At my house we were without power for 5 days, we were one of the lucky ones, my father who lived about 10 miles south on a major highway was without power for over 3 weeks, and I knew people in more rural areas within 10 or so miles of town that were without power for over 6 weeks.  A year later power still had not been restored to much of the coastal area, though it did not matter as no structures were left standing, peak high water mark was at 14 feet above sea level, which is significant in a parish (county) where the highest point 3 feet.
 
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