A couple things on this topic. Having worked for Valero as a cashier for a while I found that while it is fun to see the oil companies as super villains plotting to screw us, I think the reality is more than they are simply doing what they are legally required to do - namely optimize their profits for their stock holders. Working at a station I could see the price movement daily, and compare our tank levels to those prices. Here is what I think is going on short term:
Consider that the optimum production level for a refinery is to have it running at full capacity all the time. The problem with that is that the gasoline produced has to go someplace. We do not store very much gasoline other than what is stored at the tank farms for local distribution and in the tanks in the gas stations. So, once the gas is produced at the refinery it moves quickly to a tank farm for regional distribution. The tank farm will only hold so much gas. If the tank farm fills up the refinery MUST stop or cut back production - reducing efficiency and profits. So, they closely monitor the levels in the tank farm and adjust price daily (sometimes more often than daily) to encourage more driving and therefore purchasing if the tank farm is in danger of filling, or they raise prices to reduce sales (and make more profit per gallon) if the tank farm does not have enough gas to supply demand. So, consider the distribution channels (pipe line, tank farm, delivery trucks and gas station tanks) to be being constantly monitored to keep them from getting too full or too empty while running the refinery at a constant 100% capacity. Almost the only control they have ( and only control they need ) is to control the price which directly and almost instantaneously affects peoples daily driving habits and fuel consumption.
Having said that I am not nieve enough to think the oil companies at not evil, I think all multinationals are evil. And I think that long term they will do ANYTHING to maximize their profit from their limited product. They know that one day oil will be too expensive to get out of the ground and their cash cow days will end. So, they do have longer term plans and schemes. But the daily, weekly, monthly fluctuations of gas prices are mostly in response to how people drive - the goal being to keep the distribution channel from filling up or emptying.
The second point I would like to make is that for many years nobel winning economists have said that the US economy could not support gas prices of $4.00/gal (adjusted for inflation). They have said that if gas should reach $4.00/gal the US economy would crash into a major recession that would ripple around the world. I find it very interesting that shortly after the gas price reached $4.00/gal and stayed there for a little while the housing market crashed and several banks went under and we entered what has been described as the worst recession since the depression... Makes me go hmmmm.... The second thing that makes me go hmmmm is that no one has mentioned the possibility of the connection. Consider that everything in the world wide economy is based on the assumption of "cheap" energy - oil. Most experts agree that is we were to "run out of oil" there would be a major depression world wide, but WORSE than that, if people knew we were GOING TO RUN OUT, there would be massive panic in the financial markets which would lead to a major depression long before we actually run out of oil. So, there are those conspiracy nuts (like me) that believe we are running out of oil and all the governments in the world are scrambling to get control of whatever they can and are in agreement to keep the actual numbers secret to prevent the market panic.
Driving an RV has a unique advantage in this situation - we can decide where we want to be and move our home there with little notice. My suggestion to all is to keep your tanks topped off so if a depression hits (I don't think it will, but it doesn't hurt to plan for it) you can move to someplace you would prefer to park for a couple years until the economy recovers.
Frank
Frank