Tom said:
The combination of high tides and incoming severe storms have caused the CA Department Of Boating and Waterways to issue an advisory for the entire California Delta effective Friday 12/30/05 through Sunday 1/1/06. You can read more about it at the
CA DBW web site.
Note that, although this is currently only an advisory, DBW could make this mandatory any time they feel the levees might be breached. This would be only the third time I've seen a mandatory order invoked in the last 20+ years. The last time was too late - when a section of levee gave way and Jones Tract was flooded; It took them 9 months to pump the water out.
Yep -- Sacramento is a national flood disaster waiting to happen. And it won't take a Katrina to cause the city to go under water. It won't take a "perfect storm" to make it happen but rather a perfect combo of other weather happenings. Sacramento has long been rated if not number one over NO, it has never been ranked lower than number 2. It is the ideal scenario for a disaster of the recent NO magnitude.
Years ago, Sacto went under water almost every year -- and was as dumb a place to build a major city as was NO. The good part about the location was also the bad part -- in that it was at the convergence of the Sacto and American Rivers. However, both are fed by the runoff from the Sierra and other mountains surrounding the Sacto Valley. So when the runoff and winter rains hit, both rivers overflow as they have for thousands of years.
To fix the problem (similar to NO) they built levees to protect Sacto -- and the Federal Government (Corps of Engineers) built Folsom Dam. The later had the primary purpose of Flood Control -- and later became the tool to push back the salinity intrusion from the SF bay up into the Delta. Recreational boating, fishing, etc. had nothing to do with purpose of the dam. They are just side benefits of such a project.
Anyway, the dam is not high or strong enough, the levees were not built high or strong enough, and the environmentalists have stopped the building of the Auburn dam on the American River for the past 45-50 years. So we now have a major NO kinda thing that could happen most any winter. And this one is shaping up nicely.
The weather pattern in NCal has been like clockwork for thousands of years. It never rains in the summer but can rain heavily in the winter. The rings in redwoods indicate that wet years have always happened in 6 year cycles. The global warming crowd say it will now happen more often. Some of the storms will come down from Alaska and are not as worrisome -- however, the pineapple express storms from the southwest can lead to the "perfect weather" scenario. Everything is beginning to fall into place. The next event that could complete the scenario is if it turns really warm in the Sierras. I remember the last time it happened -- and Wow!! -- it was white knuckle time.
The warmth would cause the snow pack to melt (last time most all of it came running down the mountain) -- and that could overflow Folsom (or cause heavy, heavy, releases) and play havoc on the levee system. Probably at least 2/3rds of Sacto is below the Sacramento and American high water marks. At the same time, Shasta dam will be releasing heavily into the Sacramento, as will the Orville dam on the Feather river coming out of the mountains, also into the Sacramento.
Not to be posting a doom and gloom post -- but, Sacramento is now rated No. 1 in potential for a catastrophic flood disaster. And that's a fact.
If all this happens -- the Delta will really get hit hard. Even if it doesn't happen, this warning by the DBW during the current storm pattern seems very wise.
