DonTom
Well-known member
While that may all be true, the price of USED EVs went through the roof at the last peak of the gasoline price. And were difficult to find, as few wanted to sell theirs. Not sure about new. But I think when the price of used goes up so high that it would make many want to consider new.That's a factor for sure, but as I've said for the last 25 plus years most people won't buy a new EV unless it solves a problem they have. Just as there isn't a rush for folks to trade in their 25 mpg ICE cars for 30 mpg ones when they're introduced, even a demonstrable increase in economy an EV might offer isn't an automatic draw. No matter how into economy you are, it's rarely economical to jump into new cars regularly. There are a *lot* of people driving 3 ton plus behemoths around and fuel prices have to go up pretty high before those get traded in. I could probably cut my fuel costs (kWh vs gas) in half by switching to an EV. But it would cost me tens of thousands in acquisition cost, plus new car insurance rates, and lost opportunity. Spend many thousands to save a few hundred a year. If you're one to trade cars in regularly then maybe you'd take a shot with an EV for a while but if you're willing to pee away that much equity on an ongoing basis, you're not worried about fuel cost anyway. What problem does this solve? My personal belief is that there is a market for EV's just as there is a market for sports cars, SUV's and pickup trucks. But in order for someone to adopt an EV vs ICE, all things being equal, it has to solve a problem they have. Could be fuel prices, could be a perception of saving the planet, could be for fun or sport. All perfectly valid but those will be a subset of the number required for mass adoption no matter how you sell it. Even in the midst of the "oil crisis" in the 70's that kicked Detroit in the arse and brought economical japanese cars to the forefront, not everyone wanted japanese cars. Tesla's been shrinking back for a while now. I think they've tapped out the early adopters and the masses aren't buying into EV adoption as the government is attempting to orchestrate. Even with an EV mandate in place it's a hard row to hoe and I think a bit pie in the sky irrespective of EV street prices. Short of ceasing production of ICE vehicles, EV adoption would organically occur much more gradually, even if it's a good fit for most consumers. Average car ownership is 8 years, which means some folks (like me) keep their cars even longer. The natural half life of folks trading in cars is well past the artificial adoption dates being set. What problem do EV's solve - when it's problems consumers have, then you could see accelerated demand. I don't believe even today EV's are more than a niche or curiosity and even if less than the cost of ICE it still may not be cost effective to trade out of a perfectly good ICE.
Mark B.
Albuquerque, NM
While it is unlikely that anybody with a new ICE would consider EV, I think it could make a difference to those who are looking to buy a new car anyway. IOW, the ratio between new ICE and EV sales could change.
With the way the gas price has been jumping up here in Reno lately, we may soon find out!
-Don- Reno, NV