seilerbird

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Weather reporting and information available today is not as good as it was back in the 80s.

I am a retired corporate pilot. I flew mostly Beechcraft King Airs, and retired in a King Air 350 In 2019. I started flying in 1983. Back in the 80s we had hundreds of Flight Service Stations (FSS) around the country where we got our weather briefings. The online era of obtaining weather information had not yet arrived. The accuracy of the weather forecasts we obtained from FSS in the 80s was better than what is available online today.

The problem now is that the weather information online is all automatically gathered by various computers around the country. There is no local or personal experience input in the forecasts now. But that local, personal experience was tremendously valuable to us! Often I would talk with a FSS briefer who would tell me that the local weather was pretty bad, but then go on to say something like, “I’ve seen this weather pattern here before. By your arrival time things will be much better.” I cannot recall a time when that kind of local weather info steered me wrong.

Today there is no local experience in the automated online weather, and that skews the forecasts tremendously. A good example of how wrong the forecasts can be now is a flight I had back in April, 2017. The online weather forecast for our destination airport was calling for low clouds at only 400 feet off the ground, and 1-mile visibility in fog, rain and mist. The destination airport had an Instrument Landing System (ILS), so we could legally and safely land in that low weather, but my co-pilot and I would sure be sitting up straight and paying attention on final approach! When we got there, the actual weather we encountered was a 7,000 foot cloud ceiling and unlimited visibility under the clouds. That’s a long way from 400 and 1.

I find watching the so-called “weather reports” on TV today to be some fine comedy. They are all based on the computer models, which are often very, very wrong.
 
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Rene T said:
When I was there one time maybe 20 years ago they almost shut down because of a huge woods fire close by that was putting off a lot of smoke blowing through the park.
Tom, did they also shut down for COVID
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Yes they shut down for Covid. I said that they have only closed down two days due to WEATHER.
 
A Traveler said:
find watching the so-called “weather reports” on TV today to be some fine comedy. They are all based on the computer models, which are often very, very wrong.
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I would posit the majority of the weather folks on the news are just presenters. They probably get their weather info from the NWS or from weather.com. Or they just step outside 30 minutes before they go on air. The Farmer’s Almanac might be a better weather forecaster. I was in the AF for 24 years. Every base has a Weather Squadron and flight crews receive a weather briefing before each sortie. I knew a few pilots, navigators, loadmasters and a few other aircrew members. I never heard any of them complain about the briefings being incorrect. I loosely rely on the weather app on my iPad. But the only things I use it for is whether to water the yard or not or plan outdoor events. Nothing life threatening if the reporting is incorrect. As for the news reporting on storms; given the 24 hour news cycle and the number of news programs competing for viewership they almost have to sensationalize the news to keep their ratings up. Just don’t take it too seriously.
 
I have lived in Florida for 8 years and I keep a close eye on the weather here. Forecasting is totally impossible here in Florida. When I lived on the west coast you could very easily predict the weather.
Look west and see what the weather will be like soon. Here is Florida weather is not predictable. We are surrounded by two oceans and a sea. The weather from all three is very different and constantly interfering with each other. I went to the grocery store last month and the sky was clear and sunny. By the time I got to the store I had my wipers on and it was sunny when I got home. The store is only 1.7 miles away.
 
I started flying in 1983. Back in the 80s we had hundreds of Flight Service Stations (FSS) around the country where we got our weather briefings. The online era of obtaining weather information had not yet arrived. The accuracy of the weather forecasts we obtained from FSS in the 80s was better than what is available online today.
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I concur. I sure miss the FSS briefings, especially when I could walk in the door and see all their products vs a phone call, though those were good too. The local element was indeed extremely important, and changed what otherwise could have been a hit-or-miss forecast into something fairly accurate. That being said, today's TV casts tend to be a bit more accurate in some cases, than used to be the case, but only when the old-time casts weren't done by real meteorologists with a long time local background -- those coming in from elsewhere often blew it.

I would posit the majority of the weather folks on the news are just presenters. They probably get their weather info from the NWS or from weather.com.
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The ones on the channels I watch claim to be meteorologists, and if true they supposedly know more than just "presenters" would (some truly ARE met folks). However, I agree that it's mostly computers doing the forecasting, and even the "meteorologists" talk about the "computer models," often saying that the models vary quite a bit.

Finally, "computer models" have improved a lot the last few years, but still don't match a really good local, especially beyond 12-16 hours
 
Anyone can by a weatherman is Phoenix, AZ
"Sunny today highs in the 100's
or
Rain today high in the hundreds. If it doesn't rain then you say "it rained today but it was so hot and dry it never reached the ground.
You will have a 99% accuracy easily
 
I often wondered what x% of rain actually meant so I looked it up:

  • A 30 percent chance of rain means there is a 30% chance of measurable rain(0.01 inch or more) in the time period to which it applies, such as “today” (6 a.m. to 6 p.m.), “tonight” (6 p.m. to 6 a.m. of the next day) or “this afternoon” (noon to 6 p.m.).
 
darsben said:
Anyone can by a weatherman is Phoenix, AZ
"Sunny today highs in the 100's
or
Rain today high in the hundreds. If it doesn't rain then you say "it rained today but it was so hot and dry it never reached the ground.
You will have a 99% accuracy easily
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We DO often see that virga in Colorado.
 
I think the weather bunnies are attempting to name every group of clouds that gets together with some rain in it so that by the end of the season they can claim that the particular season for storms are the "most ever status";) And milk cows and bread makers pay them a percentage of the gross sales.:p
 
ziplock said:
@SeilerBird

I was wondering how your new kitty is doing?

Keeping you busy and entertained?

Any new pictures?
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The fact she is still alive is testimony to my patience. She thinks no means keep doing that. I have some calming drops that contain CBD and they appear to be working. It is a bitch to get the medicine down her throat. She is a hard headed girl. Layla 005.jpgLayla 004.jpgLayla 006.jpgLayla 007.jpgLayla 006.jpg

Yes I do have a few photos. Thanks for asking.
 
Ohhhh My Goodness!

That kitty is Tooo Spoiled!

Laughing! Thanks for the pictures!
 
She thinks NO, means :

Keep doing that.

You need to put that on post a joke thread.
 
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